IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03019820.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of incorrect social information on collective wisdom in human groups

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Jayles
  • Ramon Escobedo
  • Stéphane Cezera

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Adrien Blanchet

    (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)

  • Tatsuya Kameda
  • Clément Sire
  • Guy Théraulaz

    (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)

Abstract

A major problem resulting from the massive use of social media is the potential spread of incorrect information. Yet, very few studies have investigated the impact of incorrect information on individual and collective decisions. We performed experiments in which participants had to estimate a series of quantities, before and after receiving social information. Unbeknownst to them, we controlled the degree of inaccuracy of the social information through ‘virtual influencers', who provided some incorrect information. We find that a large proportion of individuals only partially follow the social information, thus resisting incorrect information. Moreover, incorrect information can help improve group performance more than correct information, when going against a human underestimation bias. We then design a computational model whose predictions are in good agreement with the empirical data, and sheds light on the mechanisms underlying our results. Besides these main findings, we demonstrate that the dispersion of estimates varies a lot between quantities, and must thus be considered when normalizing and aggregating estimates of quantities that are very different in nature. Overall, our results suggest that incorrect information does not necessarily impair the collective wisdom of groups, and can even be used to dampen the negative effects of known cognitive biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Jayles & Ramon Escobedo & Stéphane Cezera & Adrien Blanchet & Tatsuya Kameda & Clément Sire & Guy Théraulaz, 2020. "The impact of incorrect social information on collective wisdom in human groups," Post-Print hal-03019820, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03019820
    DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/bufjk
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03019820
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03019820/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31234/osf.io/bufjk?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schick, Allen G. & Gordon, Lawrence A. & Haka, Susan, 1990. "Information overload: A temporal approach," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 199-220.
    2. Alessandro Bessi & Mauro Coletto & George Alexandru Davidescu & Antonio Scala & Guido Caldarelli & Walter Quattrociocchi, 2015. "Science vs Conspiracy: Collective Narratives in the Age of Misinformation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Christos C Ioannou & Gabriel Madirolas & Faith S Brammer & Hannah A Rapley & Gonzalo G de Polavieja, 2018. "Adolescents show collective intelligence which can be driven by a geometric mean rule of thumb," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Andrés Chacoma & Damián H Zanette, 2015. "Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Gabriel Madirolas & Gonzalo G de Polavieja, 2015. "Improving Collective Estimations Using Resistance to Social Influence," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Pavlin Mavrodiev & Claudio J. Tessone & Frank Schweitzer, "undated". "Quantifying the effects of social influence," Working Papers ETH-RC-13-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    7. Corentin Vande Kerckhove & Samuel Martin & Pascal Gend & Peter J Rentfrow & Julien M Hendrickx & Vincent D Blondel, 2016. "Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
    8. Saralees Nadarajah, 2005. "A generalized normal distribution," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 685-694.
    9. Yaniv, Ilan, 2004. "Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Bjarke Mønsted & Piotr Sapieżyński & Emilio Ferrara & Sune Lehmann, 2017. "Evidence of complex contagion of information in social media: An experiment using Twitter bots," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Jayles & Clément Sire & Ralf H J M Kurvers, 2021. "Crowd control: Reducing individual estimation bias by sharing biased social information," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-28, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jayles, Bertrand & Escobedo, Ramon & Cezera, Stéphane & Blanchet, Adrien & Kameda, Tatsuya & Sire, Clément & Théraulaz, Guy, 2020. "The impact of incorrect social information on collective wisdom in human groups," IAST Working Papers 20-106, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    2. Bertrand Jayles & Clément Sire & Ralf H J M Kurvers, 2021. "Crowd control: Reducing individual estimation bias by sharing biased social information," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-28, November.
    3. Corentin Vande Kerckhove & Samuel Martin & Pascal Gend & Peter J Rentfrow & Julien M Hendrickx & Vincent D Blondel, 2016. "Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Shane T. Mueller & Yin-Yin Sarah Tan, 2018. "Cognitive perspectives on opinion dynamics: the role of knowledge in consensus formation, opinion divergence, and group polarization," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 15-48, January.
    5. Christian Ganser & Marc Keuschnigg, 2018. "Social Influence Strengthens Crowd Wisdom Under Voting," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06n07), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Peng Cheng & Zhe Ouyang & Yang Liu, 0. "The effect of information overload on the intention of consumers to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    7. Casey A. Klofstad & Joseph E. Uscinski & Jennifer M. Connolly & Jonathan P. West, 2019. "What drives people to believe in Zika conspiracy theories?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Jascha-Alexander Koch & Michael Siering, 2019. "The recipe of successful crowdfunding campaigns," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 29(4), pages 661-679, December.
    9. Gehrig, Thomas & Güth, Werner & Leví0nský, René & Popova, Vera, 2010. "On the evolution of professional consulting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 113-126, October.
    10. García, V.J. & Gómez-Déniz, E. & Vázquez-Polo, F.J., 2010. "A new skew generalization of the normal distribution: Properties and applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2021-2034, August.
    11. Lori Beaman & Ariel BenYishay & Jeremy Magruder & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2021. "Can Network Theory-Based Targeting Increase Technology Adoption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1918-1943, June.
    12. Elana Feldman & William Kahn, 2019. "When Developers Disagree: Divergent Advice as a Potential Catalyst for Protégé Growth," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 509-527, May.
    13. Carlos Carrasco-Farré, 2022. "The fingerprints of misinformation: how deceptive content differs from reliable sources in terms of cognitive effort and appeal to emotions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Ungar, Lyle & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2020. "Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 19-35.
    15. Stocks, Morris H. & Harrell, Adrian, 1995. "The impact of an increase in accounting information level on the judgment quality of individuals and groups," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 20(7-8), pages 685-700.
    16. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    17. Patt, Anthony G. & Bowles, Hannah Riley & Cash, David W., 2006. "Mechanisms for Enhancing the Credibility of an Adviser: Prepayment and Aligned Incentives," Working Paper Series rwp06-010, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Gino, Francesca, 2008. "Do we listen to advice just because we paid for it? The impact of advice cost on its use," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 234-245, November.
    19. Germano, Fabrizio & Sobbrio, Francesco, 2020. "Opinion dynamics via search engines (and other algorithmic gatekeepers)," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    20. Tianchang Ni & Runping Zhu & Richard Krever, 2023. "Responses to News Overload in a Non-Partisan Environment: News Avoidance in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wisdom of crowds; Computational modelling; Social influence; Incorrect information; Human collective behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03019820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.