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Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

Author

Listed:
  • William R.L. Anderegg

    (University of Utah)

  • Anna T. Trugman

    (UC Santa Barbara - UCSB - University of California [Santa Barbara] - UC - University of California)

  • Grayson Badgley

    (University of Utah)

  • Christa M. Anderson

    (World Wildlife Fund, Washington)

  • Ann M. Bartuska

    (RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE WASHINGTON DC USA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • Danny Cullenward
  • Christopher B. Field

    (Stanford University)

  • Jeremy Freeman
  • Scott J. Goetz

    (SICCS - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems - Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff])

  • Jeffrey A. Hicke

    (University of Idaho [Moscow])

  • Deborah Nicole Huntzinger

    (Stanford University)

  • Robert B. Jackson

    (Stanford University)

  • John Nickerson
  • Stephen W. Pacala

    (Princeton University)

  • James T. Randerson

    (UC Irvine - University of California [Irvine] - UC - University of California)

Abstract

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions. Copyright

Suggested Citation

  • William R.L. Anderegg & Anna T. Trugman & Grayson Badgley & Christa M. Anderson & Ann M. Bartuska & Philippe Ciais & Danny Cullenward & Christopher B. Field & Jeremy Freeman & Scott J. Goetz & Jeffrey, 2020. "Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests," Post-Print hal-02883164, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02883164
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz7005
    as

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