Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Ecological Resilience in the Upper Yangtze River from 2010 to 2030

Watershed ecosystem resilience (RES) plays a vital role in supporting ecosystem sustainability. However, comprehensive assessments and investigations into the complex mechanisms driving RES remain limited, particularly in ecologically sensitive basins. To address this gap, this study proposes a multidimensional RES evaluation framework tailored to watershed-specific natural characteristics. The framework integrates five core dimensions: ecosystem resistance, ecosystem recovery capacity, ecosystem adaptability, ecosystem services, and ecosystem vitality. RES patterns under 2030 different future scenarios were simulated using the PLUS model combined with CMIP6 climate projections. Spatial and temporal dynamics of RES from 2010 to 2020 were quantified using Geodetector and Partial Least Squares Path Modeling, offering insights into the interactions among natural and anthropogenic drivers. The results reveal that RES in the Upper Yangtze River Basin exhibits a spatial gradient of “high in the east and west, low in the middle” with an overall 2.80% decline during the study period. Vegetation coverage and temperature emerged as dominant natural drivers, while land use change exerted significant indirect effects by altering ecological processes. This study emphasizes the importance of integrated land-climate strategies and offers valuable guidance for enhancing RES and supporting sustainable watershed management in the context of global environmental change.