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Long-Term Care: Risk Description of a Spanish Portfolio and Economic Analysis of the Timing of Insurance Purchase

Author

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  • Jean Pinquet

    () (CECO - Laboratoire d'économétrie de l'École polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Guillén Montserrat

    () (CECO - Laboratoire d'économétrie de l'École polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the rationale of long-term care insurance purchasing, from a statistical analysis of insurance data and a life cycle model. We make a short survey of the pros and cons of LTC insurance purchase. Then risk distributions in the occurrence and duration dimension are estimated on a Spanish portfolio. Calendar effects are estimated besides age and gender. These statistical results are integrated in a life cycle model of savings and insurance purchasing. A numerical illustration is also provided, which leads to an optimal age of forty years for insurance purchase.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Pinquet & Guillén Montserrat, 2008. "Long-Term Care: Risk Description of a Spanish Portfolio and Economic Analysis of the Timing of Insurance Purchase," Post-Print hal-00343104, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00343104
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00343104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1995. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sloan, Frank A & Norton, Edward C, 1997. "Adverse Selection, Bequests, Crowding Out, and Private Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 201-219, December.
    3. de Meza, David & Webb, David C, 2001. "Advantageous Selection in Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(2), pages 249-262, Summer.
    4. Leung, Siu Fai, 1994. "Uncertain Lifetime, the Theory of the Consumer, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1233-1239, September.
    5. Hanming Fang & Michael P. Keane & Dan Silverman, 2008. "Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 303-350, April.
    6. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Finkelstein, Amy, 2007. "Why is the market for long-term care insurance so small?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1967-1991, November.
    7. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, January.
    8. Gupta, Aparna & Li, Lepeng, 2007. "Integrating long-term care insurance purchase decisions with saving and investment for retirement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 362-381, November.
    9. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Robert B. Barsky & F. Thomas Juster & Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-579.
    11. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Pinquet & Montserrat Guillén & Mercedes Ayuso, 2011. "Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 983-1002, December.
    2. Jean Pinquet, 2008. "Quel avenir pour l'assurance dépendance? Leçons de l'expérience américaine," Post-Print hal-00396151, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term care insurance; Lee-Carter models; life cycle approach; calendar; gender and age effects;

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