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Modelling Transition And International Opening In Asia: The Case Of Vietnam With A Comparison With China And The "Asian Tigers"

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure-Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Louis Brillet

    (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE))

  • Cuong Le Van

    (CERMSEM - CEntre de Recherche en Mathématiques, Statistique et Économie Mathématique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jacques Mazier

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market clearing by price adjustment. The non agricultural sector is demand-led, with imperfect competition (and hence sticky prices and indexed nominal wages). According to this dual theoretical pattern, labor market is segmented with an unlimited supply in the rural area. This part of labor force is employed in the agricultural sector and in the rural non agricultural one. Urban workers are employed in the non agricultural sector but may face unemployment. The wage gap between urban and ruralareas induces migration, according to a Harris Todaro mechanism. This framework is applied to the Vietnam case. A calibrated quantitative model performs a base line simulation from 1993 to 2010, following approximately the path designed by the Vietnamese government. Finally, this model is used to sketch various scenarios, among which traditional macroeconomic packages, structural reforms, and external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Sand-Zantman & Jean-Louis Brillet & Cuong Le Van & Jacques Mazier, 2000. "Modelling Transition And International Opening In Asia: The Case Of Vietnam With A Comparison With China And The "Asian Tigers"," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00372748, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00372748
    DOI: 10.1057/ces.2000.25
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00372748v1
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    1. Rattso, Jorn, 1989. "Macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in a dual semi-industrialized economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 47-69, January.
    2. Mr. Torsten M Sloek & Mr. Sanja Kalra, 1999. "Inflation and Growth in Transition: Are the Asian Economies Different?," IMF Working Papers 1999/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1989. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    4. Nicholas Crafts, 1999. "East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-2.
    5. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    6. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1981. "Food supply and inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-284, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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