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Analysts' earnings forecasts and international asset allocation

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  • Huijgen, Carel
  • Plantinga, Auke

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether financial analysts’ earnings forecasts are informative from the viewpoint of allocating investments across different stock markets. Therefore we develop a country forecast indicator reflecting the analysts’ prospects for specific stock markets. The country forecast indicator is defined as the number of companies within one and the same stock market for which analysts revise their current year earnings forecast upward divided by the total number of companies for which analysts revise their current year earnings forecasts anyway. Based on the available analysts’ earnings forecasts in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/E/B/S), we calculate a monthly country forecast indicator for the stock markets in Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Switzerland over the period 1990 to 1994. The time-series correlations between the monthly value of the indicator and the stock market returns around the date of calculating the indicator show that stock returns rather precede than follow revisions in earnings forecasts. An investment strategy which is based on a monthly asset allocation to that stock market with the highest value of the country forecast indicator in the preceding month, gives a slight outperformance (around 3 percent excess return) compared to an equal allocation of funds to the stock markets involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Huijgen, Carel & Plantinga, Auke, 1999. "Analysts' earnings forecasts and international asset allocation," Research Report 99E38, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:99e38
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/18769317X
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. Heinz Zimmermann & Claudia Zogg-Wetter, 1992. "Performance-Messung schweizerischer Aktienfonds: Markt-Timing und Selektivität," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 128(II), pages 133-160, June.
    3. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    4. Womack, Kent L, 1996. " Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    5. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Mustafa Gultekin, 1981. "Expectations and Share Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(9), pages 975-987, September.
    6. Klein, April, 1990. "A direct test of the cognitive bias theory of share price reversals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 155-166, July.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    9. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
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