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Heterogeneous Expectations with Multiple Risky Assets

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Sommariva

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)

  • Paolo Zeppini

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)

Abstract

We extend the heterogeneous agent model of Brock and Hommes (1997, 1998) to a setting with two risky assets. Agents choose between a trend-following rule and a fundamentalist rule using evolutionary switching based on past performance. The expectation rules operate on both assets simultaneously: the forecast for each asset depends on the lagged price deviation of the other, introducing cross-asset expectations as a new channel for endogenous comovement. In the deterministic skeleton we derive the threshold intensity of choice at which the fundamental steady state loses stability and show that cross-asset expectations lower it: the fundamental steady state destabilizes sooner, and the interval of stable non-fundamental dynamics that follows shrinks. In the stochastic system, they amplify the realized correlation far beyond the exogenous baseline: as the intensity of switching approaches the pitchfork threshold the realized correlation approaches one, however weakly the two fundamentals are correlated. This amplification is non-monotonic in the intensity of choice and it operates through the structure of expectations alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Sommariva & Paolo Zeppini, 2026. "Heterogeneous Expectations with Multiple Risky Assets," GREDEG Working Papers 2026-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    2. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    3. Hommes, Cars & Vroegop, Joris, 2019. "Contagion between asset markets: A two market heterogeneous agents model with destabilising spillover effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 314-333.
    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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