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Linear Models Of Economic Survival Under Production Uncertainty

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  • RADNER, R.

Abstract

In this paper we consider the situation of an investor facing uncertainty, and whose objective is to survive. First we characterize the probability of survival of a passive agent who does not attempt to influence the evolution of the environment. Secondly, we look at an active agent who chooses investment opportunities affecting his fortune and who attempts to maximize the probability of survival. It is shown that, in some cases, the optimal investment policy will exhibit a risk-loving behavior whenever his fortune is below a critical level.
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Suggested Citation

  • Radner, R., 1990. "Linear Models Of Economic Survival Under Production Uncertainty," Papers 427, Cornell - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:cornel:427
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    Cited by:

    1. Yener, Haluk & Soybilgen, Barış & Stengos, Thanasis, 2020. "A general model for financial crises: An application to eurozone crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 202-229.
    2. Roy S., 1996. "Theory of dynamic portfolio choice for survival under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 61-62, February.
    3. Zadourian, Rubina & Klümper, Andreas, 2018. "Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 59-66.
    4. Manuel Moreno & Javier F. Navas, 2003. "Australian Asian Options," Working Papers 28, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Hashimzade, Nigar & Majumdar, Mukul, 2002. "Survival under Uncertainty in an Exchange Economy," Working Papers 02-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    6. Rabi Bhattacharya & Hyeonju Kim & Mukul Majumdar, 2015. "Sustainability in the Stochastic Ramsey Model," Papers 1511.07419, arXiv.org.
    7. Moshe Arye Milevsky & Steven E. Posner, 1999. "Asian Options, The Sum Of Lognormals, And The Reciprocal Gamma Distribution," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Marco Avellaneda (ed.), Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers of the New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar, chapter 7, pages 203-218, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Charupat, Narat & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2002. "Optimal asset allocation in life annuities: a note," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 199-209, April.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe Arye, 1999. "Martingales, scale functions and stochastic life annuities: a note," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 149-154, March.
    10. Brock, William A. & Evans, Lewis T., 1996. "Principal-agent contracts in continuous time asymmetric information models the importance of large continuing information flows," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 523-535, May.

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