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The Credit Default Swap Market's Determinants

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  • Caitlin Ann Greatrex

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper explores the ability of variables suggested by structural models to explain variation in CDS spread changes. Using monthly changes in CDS spreads for 333 firms from January, 2001 – March, 2006, I find that these variables are able to explain thirty percent of the variation in CDS spread changes. A rating-based CDS index that accounts for both credit risk and overall market conditions is the single best predictor of CDS spread changes. Leverage and volatility, however, are also key determinants, as these two variables can explain almost half of the explained variation in monthly CDS spread changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Caitlin Ann Greatrex, 2008. "The Credit Default Swap Market's Determinants," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-05
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    File URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2008_05_greatrex.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    2. Fathi Abid & Nader Naifar, 2006. "The Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Rates: An Explanatory Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 23-42.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Didier Cossin & Tomas Hricko & Daniel Aunon-Nerin & Zhijiang Huang, 2002. "Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?," FAME Research Paper Series rp65, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    2. Jatin Malhotra & Angelo Corelli, 2018. "The Determinants of CDS Spreads in Multiple Industry Sectors: A Comparison between the US and Europe," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Brasel, Kelsey R. & Hill, Mary S. & Taylor, Gary K., 2022. "The relevance of GAAP vs. non-GAAP net assets to creditors: An examination of the credit default swap market," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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