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Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

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Listed:
  • Hirvonen, Kalle
  • Abate, Gashaw T.
  • Berhane, Guush
  • Gilligan, Daniel O.
  • Hidrobo, Melissa
  • Hoddinott, John F.
  • Leight, Jessica
  • Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Abstract

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirvonen, Kalle & Abate, Gashaw T. & Berhane, Guush & Gilligan, Daniel O. & Hidrobo, Melissa & Hoddinott, John F. & Leight, Jessica & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2025. "Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?," IFPRI discussion papers 2366, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:176897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorosh, Paul A., ed. & Minten, Bart, ed., 2020. "Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis," IFPRI synopses 9780896296930, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Rachel Sabates‐Wheeler & Jeremy Lind & John Hoddinott & Mulugeta Tefera Taye, 2021. "Graduation after 10 years of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: Surviving but still not thriving," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(4), pages 511-531, July.
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    8. Hirvonen, Kalle & Gilligan, Daniel O. & Leight, Jessica & Tambet, Heleene & Villa, Victor, 2023. "Do ultra-poor graduation programs build resilience against droughts? Evidence from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 2206, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2022. "Why Do People Stay Poor? [“Exploring Poverty Traps and Social Exclusion in South Africa Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
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