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The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream

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We study how US immigration policy and the Internet boom affected not just the US, but also led to a tech boom in India. Students and workers in India acquired computer science skills to join the rapidly growing US IT industry. As the number of US visas was capped, many remained in India, enabling the growth of an Indian IT sector that eventually surpassed the US in IT exports. We leverage variation in immigration quotas and US demand for migrants to show that India experienced a 'brain gain' when the probability of migrating to the US was higher. Using detailed data on higher education, alumni networks, and work histories of high-skill workers, we show that changes in the US H-1B cap induced changes in fields of study, and occupation choice in India. We then build and estimate a quantitative model incorporating migration, heterogeneous abilities, trade, innovation, and dynamic occupation choice in both countries. We find that high-skill migration raised the average welfare of workers in each country, but had distributional consequences. The H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science occupations, and helped drive the shift in IT production from the US to India. We show that accounting for endogenous skill acquisition is key for quantifying the gains from migration.

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  • Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales, 2025. "The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream," Working Paper 25-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:99351
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    Cited by:

    1. Ina Ganguli & Megan MacGarvie, 2026. "Science Without Borders? Waxing and Waning Integration in Global Scientific Research and Innovation," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Science: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Narcisse Cha'ngom & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2025. "Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1713-1732, October.
    3. Gouranga Gopal Das & Sugata Marjit, 2018. "Skill, Innovation and Wage Inequality: Can Immigrants be the Trump Card?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7082, CESifo.
    4. John Bound & Breno Braga & Gaurav Khanna & Sarah Turner, 2021. "The Globalization of Postsecondary Education: The Role of International Students in the US Higher Education System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 163-184, Winter.
    5. Dany Bahar & Andreas Hauptmann & Cem Özgüzel & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Migration and Post-conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia," Growth Lab Working Papers 149, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    6. John Bound & Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales, 2017. "Understanding the Economic Impact of the H-1B Program on the United States," NBER Chapters, in: High-Skilled Migration to the United States and Its Economic Consequences, pages 109-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Kevin Shih & Huanan Xu, 2023. "The implications of optional practical training reforms on international student enrollments and quality," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 253-281, April.
    8. Ghose,Devaki, 2021. "Trade, Internal Migration, and Human Capital : Who Gains from India’s IT Boom?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9738, The World Bank.
    9. Patrick S. Turner, 2022. "High‐Skilled Immigration and the Labor Market: Evidence from the H‐1B Visa Program," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 92-130, January.
    10. Yao Pan & Jessica Leight, 2021. "Educational Responses to Migration-Augmented Export Shocks: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2021-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. John Bound & Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales, 2017. "Understanding the Economic Impact of the H-1B Program on the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mobarak, Ahmed & Sharif, Iffath & Shrestha, Maheshwor, 2021. "Returns to International Migration: Evidence from a Bangladesh-Malaysia Visa Lottery," CEPR Discussion Papers 15990, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Das, Gouranga Gopal & Marjit, Sugata & Kar, Mausumi, 2020. "The Impact of Immigration on Skills, Innovation and Wages: Education Matters more than where People Come from," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 557-582.
    14. Nicolas Morales, 2019. "High-Skill Migration, Multinational Companies, and the Location of Economic Activity," Working Paper 19-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Cem Ozguzel, 2019. "Essays on migration and productivity [Essais sur les migrations et la productivité]," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) tel-03381203, HAL.
    16. Estrella Gomez-Herrera & Bertin Martens & Frank Muller-Langer, 2017. "Trade, competition and welfare in global online labour markets: A "gig economy" case study," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2017-05, Joint Research Centre.

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    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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