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Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

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Abstract

We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these long-term relationships--which the literature has termed "Japanese" due to their introduction by Japanese firms--from spot-market relationships in customs data. We show that the use of "Japanese" relationships varies intuitively across trading partners and products and find that the use of such relationships increases after a reduction in the possibility of a trade war. Extending the standard general equilibrium trade model to encompass potential trade wars and relational contracts, we estimate that eliminating "Japanese" procurement reduces welfare about a third as much as moving to autarky.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Heise & Justin R. Pierce & Georg Schaur & Peter K. Schott, 2024. "Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains," International Finance Discussion Papers 1389, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1389
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2024.1389
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    1. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 729-761.
    3. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
    4. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    5. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Heise & Justin R. Pierce & Georg Schaur & Peter K. Schott, 2025. "How Do Firms in Different Sectors Organize Their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 177-181, May.
    2. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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