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The Fed's Fine-Tune: Coarse Statements and Predictive Pressers

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Abstract

Central bank communications, particularly FOMC statements and press conferences, play a crucial role in shaping financial market expectations. Using large language models to quantify central bank content, this paper demonstrates how sentiment aligns with traditional market-based monetary policy measures. We show that press conferences correlate with future policy to a greater extent than other communications. While FOMC statements coarsely signal the current stance of policy, press conferences fine-tune the message, which helps market participants revise their expectations about future policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Byun & Bennett Fees & Margaret M. Jacobson & Todd B. Walker, 2026. "The Fed's Fine-Tune: Coarse Statements and Predictive Pressers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103339
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.029
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    1. Shantanu Banerjee & Paul Cordova & Michiel De Pooter & Olesya V. Grishchenko, 2025. "Gauging the Sentiment of Federal Open Market Committee Communications through the Eyes of the Financial Press," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
    3. Wendy E. Dunn & Raakin Kabir & Ellen E. Meade & Nitish R. Sinha, 2024. "Using Generative AI Models to Understand FOMC Monetary Policy Discussions," FEDS Notes 2024-12-06-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    5. Tim Munday & James Brookes, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    6. Taeyoung Doh & Sungil Kim & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2021. "How You Say It Matters: Text Analysis of FOMC Statements Using Natural Language Processing," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no.1), pages 25-40, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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