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Labor Market Stability and Fertility Decisions

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Abstract

This paper studies how fertility decisions respond to an improvement in job stability using variation from the large and unexpected regularization of undocumented immigrants in Spain implemented during the first half of 2005. This policy change improved substantially the labor market opportunities of affected men and women, many of which left the informality of house keeping service sectors toward more formal, stable, and higher paying jobs in larger firms (Elias et al., 2023). In this paper, we estimate the effects of the regularization on fertility rates using two alternative difference-in-differences strategies that compare fertility behavior of “eligible” and “non-eligible” candidate women to obtain the legal status, both on aggregate and at the local level. Our findings suggests that gaining work permits leads to a significant increase in women fertility. Our preferred estimates indicate that the regularization increased fertility rates among affected women by around 5 points, which is a 10 percent increase.

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  • Joan Monras & Eduardo Polo-Muro & Javier Vazquez-Grenno, 2023. "Labor Market Stability and Fertility Decisions," Working Paper Series 2023-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97339
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neeraj Kaushal, 2006. "Amnesty Programs and the Labor Market Outcomes of Undocumented Workers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(3).
    2. Paolo Pinotti, 2017. "Clicking on Heaven's Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 138-168, January.
    3. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Paolo Pinotti, 2015. "Legal Status and the Criminal Activity of Immigrants," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 175-206, April.
    4. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Ibanez, Ana Maria & Rozo, Sandra V. & Traettino, Salvador, 2023. "More Benefits, Fewer Children: How Regularization Affects Immigrant Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    6. Edoardo Di Porto & Enrica Maria Martino & Paolo Naticchioni, 2018. "Back to Black? The Impact of Regularizing Migrant Workers," CSEF Working Papers 517, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    7. Samuel Bentolila & Pierre Cahuc & Juan J. Dolado & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2012. "Two‐Tier Labour Markets in the Great Recession: France Versus Spain-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(562), pages 155-187, August.
    8. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, March.
    9. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    10. Elira Kuka & Na'ama Shenhav & Kevin Shih, 2019. "A Reason to Wait: The Effect of Legal Status on Teen Pregnancy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 213-217, May.
    11. Gálvez Iniesta, Ismael, 2020. "The size, socio-economic composition and fiscal implications of the irregular immigration in Spain," UC3M Working papers. Economics 30643, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor markets; stability; fertility; immigration policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

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