IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/99740.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Last Resort Insurance: Wildfires and the Regulation of a Crashing Market

Author

Listed:

Abstract

An increasing number of people are denied home insurance coverage in the private market and must instead turn to state-sponsored plans known as “Insurers of Last Resort.” This paper examines how insurers of last resort interact with the private market under increasing disaster risks. We first present a simple model of an adversely selected insurance market, highlighting that the insurer of last resort allows strict price regulation to be compatible with full insurance. We then empirically study the California non-renewal moratoriums, a regulation that forced insurers to supply insurance to current customers following wildfires in 2019 and 2020. Using quasi-random geographic variation in regulatory borders and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the moratoriums successfully reduced company-initiated non-renewals and cancellations in the short run. The effects only lasted for one year, with insurers dropping policies as soon as the moratorium lapsed. The moratoriums had no discernible effect on participation in the State’s insurer of last resort.

Suggested Citation

  • Reid Taylor & Madeline Turland & Joakim A. Weill, 2025. "Last Resort Insurance: Wildfires and the Regulation of a Crashing Market," Working Papers 2510, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:99740
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2025/wp2510.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/wp2510?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    2. Johannes Spinnewijn, 2017. "Heterogeneity, Demand for Insurance, and Adverse Selection," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 308-343, February.
    3. Kunreuther, Howard, 1996. "Mitigating Disaster Losses through Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(2-3), pages 171-187, May.
    4. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    5. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
    7. Carolyn Kousky, 2019. "The Role of Natural Disaster Insurance in Recovery and Risk Reduction," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 399-418, October.
    8. Bilal, Adrien & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2023. "Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 18192, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:fip:fedpwp:96170 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2024. "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," NBER Working Papers 32579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    12. Shan Ge & Stephanie Johnson & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2025. "Climate Risk, Insurance Premiums and the Effects on Mortgage and Credit Outcomes," Working Papers 2505, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Xudong An & Stuart A. Gabriel & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2024. "Extreme Wildfires, Distant Air Pollution, and Household Financial Health," Working Papers 24-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Siddhartha Biswas & Mallick Hossain & David Zink, 2023. "California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Marika Cabral & Mark R. Cullen, 2019. "Estimating the Value of Public Insurance Using Complementary Private Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 88-129, August.
    16. Patricia Born & W. Viscusi, 2006. "The catastrophic effects of natural disasters on insurance markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 55-72, September.
    17. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    18. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    19. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2020. "Long-Term Care Insurance: Information Frictions and Selection," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 134-169, August.
    20. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    21. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    22. Kyle Butts, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences Estimation with Spatial Spillovers," Papers 2105.03737, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    23. Patrick Baylis & Judson Boomhower, 2019. "Moral Hazard, Wildfires, and the Economic Incidence of Natural Disasters," NBER Working Papers 26550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Carolyn Kousky, 2011. "Managing Natural Catastrophe Risk: State Insurance Programs in the United States," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 153-171, Winter.
    25. Charles Nyce & Randy E. Dumm & G. Stacy Sirmans & Greg Smersh, 2015. "The Capitalization of Insurance Premiums in House Prices," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 82(4), pages 891-919, December.
    26. Kathryn McConnell & Elizabeth Fussell & Jack DeWaard & Stephan Whitaker & Katherine J. Curtis & Lise Denis & Jennifer Balch & Kobie Price, 2024. "Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    27. Donghoon Lee & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "An introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel," Staff Reports 479, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    2. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    4. Marcel Henkel, Eunjee Kwon, Pierre Magontier, 2022. "The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper37, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    5. Mensah, Edouard R. & Filipski, Mateusz J., 2022. "Saving for a rainy day: the impact of natural disasters on savings rates," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322266, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Nicholas Gunby & Tom Coupé, 2023. "Weather-Related Home Damage and Subjective Well-Being," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(2), pages 409-438, February.
    7. Barnes, Stephen & Joshi, Swarup & Terrell, Dek, 2023. "Disasters and health insurance: Evidence from Louisiana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Giulia Contu & Sara Pau, 2022. "The impact of TV series on tourism performance: the case of Game of Thrones," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 3313-3341, December.
    9. Marein, Brian, 2023. "Public health departments and the mortality transition in Latin America: Evidence from Puerto Rico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    12. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2023. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    13. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    14. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    15. Luo, Lianfa & Cheng, Zhiming & Ye, Qingqing & Cheng, Yanjun & Smyth, Russell & Yang, Zhiqing & Zhang, Le, 2024. "Nonmonetary awards and innovation: Evidence from winning China's Top Brand Contest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Görg, Holger & Lehr, Jakob, 2024. "Short and medium-term effects of foreign acquisitions on manufacturing firms: Evidence from Germany," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 302104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Hashida, Yukiko & Dundas, Steven J., 2023. "The effects of a voluntary property buyout and acquisition program on coastal housing markets: Evidence from New York," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Mayberry, Anthony A., 2023. "Demilitarization and economic growth: Empirical evidence in support of a peace dividend," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 960-988.
    20. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kurtyka, Oliwia & Ollivier, Hélène, 2022. "Take a ride on the (not so) green side: How do CDM projects affect Indian manufacturing firms’ environmental performance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    insurance; natural disasters; wildfires;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:99740. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.