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Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin J. Keys
  • Philip Mulder

Abstract

We develop a new dataset to study homeowners insurance using over 74 million premiums from 2014–2024 inferred from mortgage escrow payments. We document rapidly rising premiums and a doubling of the pass-through from disaster risk into premiums. Using variation in correlated wildfire and hurricane exposure, we show that the increase in the risk-to-premium gradient was accelerated by a repricing of catastrophic risk in global capital markets. Premium increases are capitalized into home values, reducing home price growth by over $40,000 in the most exposed zipcodes. The premium and home price effects are larger in areas facing rising climate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2024. "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," NBER Working Papers 32579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32579
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    Cited by:

    1. J Anthony Cookson & Emily Gallagher & Philip Mulder, 2025. "Coverage Neglect in Homeowner's Insurance," Working Papers 25-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Reid Taylor & Madeline Turland & Joakim A. Weill, 2025. "Last Resort Insurance: Wildfires and the Regulation of a Crashing Market," Working Papers 2510, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Damast, Dominik & Kubitza, Christian & Sørensen, Jakob Ahm, 2025. "Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy," ICIR Working Paper Series 55/25, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    4. Hyeyoon Jung & Jaehoon (Kyle) Jung, 2025. "Economics of Property Insurance," Staff Reports 1171, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Wylie, David & Amornsiripanitch, Natee & Heilbron, John & Zhao, Kevin, 2025. "JUE Insights: Who bears climate-related physical risk?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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