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Social Network and Sentiment Contagion: Evidence from the Bitcoin Market

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Abstract

Using new data on social interactions and individual trading records in the Bitcoin market, we show that investor sentiment spreads across social connections. Investors systematically revise their beliefs about Bitcoin prices in the direction of average peer sentiment—even though that sentiment does not predict future prices. We document specific patterns in the diffusion of beliefs across networks, including evidence consistent with confirmation bias. Moreover, this social-sentiment contagion influences both individual trading decisions and overall market dynamics. Our novel measure of contagion intensity significantly forecasts Bitcoin volatility, trading volume and market crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing Han & Haoyang Liu & Pengfei Sui, 2026. "Social Network and Sentiment Contagion: Evidence from the Bitcoin Market," Working Papers 2605, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:102864
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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