Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups
Angel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have not yet been produced. Although calculations of realized returns are a valuable contribution, expected returns, rather than realized returns, drive investment decisions. We use a new data set and statistical framework to produce the first empirical estimates of expected returns on angel investments. We also allow for the time value of money, which previous research has typically ignored. Our sample of 588 investments spans the 1972–2007 period and contains 419 exited investments. We conduct extensive tests to explore potential bias in the data set and conclude that the evidence in favor of bias is tenuous at best. Our results suggest that angel investors in groups can expect to earn returns that are on the order of returns on venture capital investments. Estimated net returns are about 70 percent in excess of the riskless rate per year for an average holding period of 3.67 years. This estimate is reasonable compared to Cochrane's (2005) estimate of 59 percent per year for venture capital investments, which tend to be in lower-variance, later-stage projects. Returns have a large variance and are heavily skewed, with many losses and occasional extraordinarily high returns.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1000 Peachtree St., N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30309|
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2008.
"On the Lifecycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms,"
08-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2008. "On the Lifecycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," NBER Working Papers 14250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Cumming & Uwe Walz, 2010.
"Private equity returns and disclosure around the world,"
Journal of International Business Studies,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 727-754, May.
- Walz, Uwe & Cumming, Douglas, 2004. "Private equity returns and disclosure around the world," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Cora Barnhart & Gerald P. Dwyer, 2012.
"Returns To Investors In Stocks In New Industries,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1031-1049, October.
- Mason, Colin M. & Harrison, Richard T., 2002. "Is it worth it? The rates of return from informal venture capital investments," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 211-236, May.
- Oliver, Gottschalg & Ludovic, Phalippou, 2006.
"The performance of private equity funds,"
Les Cahiers de Recherche
852, HEC Paris.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 2005.
"The risk and return of venture capital,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
- John H. Cochrane, 2001. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 8066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John, 2000. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7qm9h594, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Oliver Gottschalg & Ludovic Phalippou, 2009. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds," Post-Print hal-00458110, HAL.
- Oliver Gottschalg & Ludovic Phalippou, 2009. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds," Post-Print hal-00458111, HAL.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2010-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elaine Clokey)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.