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Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups

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  • Ramon P. DeGennaro
  • Gerald P. Dwyer

Abstract

Angel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have not yet been produced. Although calculations of realized returns are a valuable contribution, expected returns, rather than realized returns, drive investment decisions. We use a new data set and statistical framework to produce the first empirical estimates of expected returns on angel investments. We also allow for the time value of money, which previous research has typically ignored. Our sample of 588 investments spans the 1972?2007 period and contains 419 exited investments. We conduct extensive tests to explore potential bias in the data set and conclude that the evidence in favor of bias is tenuous at best. Our results suggest that angel investors in groups can expect to earn returns that are on the order of returns on venture capital investments. Estimated net returns are about 70 percent in excess of the riskless rate per year for an average holding period of 3.67 years. This estimate is reasonable compared to Cochrane's (2005) estimate of 59 percent per year for venture capital investments, which tend to be in lower-variance, later-stage projects. Returns have a large variance and are heavily skewed, with many losses and occasional extraordinarily high returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon P. DeGennaro & Gerald P. Dwyer, 2010. "Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2010-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Metrick & Ayako Yasuda, 2011. "Venture Capital and Other Private Equity: a Survey," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 619-654, September.
    2. Kasper Meisner Nielsen, 2011. "The Return to Direct Investment in Private Firms: New Evidence on the Private Equity Premium Puzzle," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(3), pages 436-463, June.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    4. Ludovic Phalippou & Oliver Gottschalg, 2009. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1747-1776, April.
    5. Douglas Cumming & Uwe Walz, 2010. "Private equity returns and disclosure around the world," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 41(4), pages 727-754, May.
    6. Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
    7. Cora Barnhart & Gerald P. Dwyer, 2012. "Returns To Investors In Stocks In New Industries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1031-1049, October.
    8. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2010. "Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3738-3772, October.
    9. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    10. Paul Davidson Reynolds, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in The United States," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Springer, number 978-0-387-45671-3, December.
    11. Ramon P. DeGennaro & Gerald P. Dwyer, 2014. "Expected Returns to Stock Investments by Angel Investors in Groups," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 739-755, September.
    12. Shane, Scott, 2009. "Fool's Gold: The Truth Behind Angel Investing in America," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195331080.
    13. Robert Wiltbank, 2005. "Investment practices and outcomesof informal venture investors," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 343-357, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Wagman, Liad, 2016. "Early-stage entrepreneurial financing: A signaling perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 12-22.
    2. Bonini, Stefano & Capizzi, Vincenzo & Valletta, Mario & Zocchi, Paola, 2018. "Angel network affiliation and business angels' investment practices," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 592-608.
    3. Bonini, Stefano & Capizzi, Vincenzo & Zocchi, Paola, 2019. "The performance of angel-backed companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 328-345.
    4. Ramon P. DeGennaro & Gerald P. Dwyer, 2014. "Expected Returns to Stock Investments by Angel Investors in Groups," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 739-755, September.
    5. Douglas Cumming & Minjie Zhang, 2019. "Angel investors around the world," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(5), pages 692-719, July.
    6. Douglas Cumming & Jochen Christian Werth & Yelin Zhang, 2019. "Governance in entrepreneurial ecosystems: venture capitalists vs. technology parks," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 455-484, February.
    7. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    8. Harrison, Richard T. & Bock, Adam J. & Gregson, Geoff, 2020. "Stairway to heaven? rethinking angel investment policy and practice," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    9. Cumming, Douglas & Zhang, Yelin, 2016. "Alternative investments in emerging markets: A review and new trends," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-23.

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