IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/epgewp/806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: analysis of a possible structural break in the recent period

Author

Listed:
  • Campos, Eduardo Lima
  • Cysne, Rubens Penha

Abstract

Campos and Cysne (2019a) use the multicointegration method to analyze the behavior of Brazilian public debt between 1997 and 2018. The authors observe, in this previous work, the necessity of evaluating the existence of a structural break along the sample, corroborating assumptions originated from the political cycle. This paper evaluates that possibility, and identifies its possible effects on the sustainability of the public debt. The conclusion regarding the unsustainability of the debt/GDP ratio is confirmed. But here we are able to identify the precise date as of which the debt trajectory becomes unsustainable. Using a technique which allows for a structural break has two additional advantages with regard to Campos and Cysne (2019a). First, it enables the comparison of the models before and after the break. Second, to a certain extent, it includes the possibility of comparisons with previous empirical works based on variable-coefficient methodologies [e.g. Campos and Cysne (2019b)].

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2019. "Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: analysis of a possible structural break in the recent period," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 806, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/5f92a044-3455-4a24-816b-c81b293cd4cd/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    3. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    6. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    7. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    8. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. "Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-254, May.
    9. Tronzano, Marco, 2014. "Multicointegration and Fiscal Sustainability in India: Evidence from Standard and Regime Shifts Models - Multicointegrazione e sostenibilità fiscale in India: evidenze empiriche da modelli standard e ," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 263-291.
    10. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2007. "The comovement of US and German bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 172-182.
    11. Lori Leachman & Alan Bester & Guillermo Rosas & Peter Lange, 2005. "Multicointegration and Sustainability of Fiscal Practices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 454-466, April.
    12. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    13. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cysne, Rubens Penha & Campos, Eduardo Lima, 2019. "Sustainability of the Brazilian public pebt an analysis using multicointegration," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 805, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    3. Kia, Amir, 2008. "Fiscal sustainability in emerging countries: Evidence from Iran and Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 957-972.
    4. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración," Working Papers 2112, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    6. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    7. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2014. "Fiscal reform and fiscal sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 141-151.
    8. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
    9. Regina Escario & Mar�a Dolores Gadea & Marcela Sabat�, 2009. "Government Solvency or just Pseudo-Sustainability? a Long-Run Multicointegration Approach for Spain," Documentos de Trabajo dt2009-07, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    10. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    12. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    13. Rathnayake, Anuruddhi Shanika K, 2020. "Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.
    16. Carlos Marinheiro, 2005. "Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective," GEMF Working Papers 2005-01, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Przemyslaw Wlodarczyk, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability of the Visegrad Group countries in the aftermath of global economic crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    20. Vasco Gabriel & Pataaree Sangduan, 2011. "Assessing fiscal sustainability subject to policy changes: a Markov switching cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 371-385, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.