IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2021.26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning about Unprecedented Events: Agent-Based Modelling and the Stock Market Impact of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Bazzana

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Michele Colturato

    (University of Pavia)

  • Roberto Savona

    (University of Brescia)

Abstract

We model the learning process of market traders during the unprecedented COVID-19 event. We introduce a behavioral heterogeneous agents’ model with bounded rationality by including a correction mechanism through representativeness (Gennaioli et al., 2015). To inspect the market crash induced by the pandemic, we calibrate the STOXX Europe 600 Index, when stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage drop ever. Once the extreme event materializes, agents tend to be more sensitive to all positive and negative news, subsequently moving on to close-to-rational. We find that the deflation mechanism of less representative news seems to disappear after the extreme event.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Bazzana & Michele Colturato & Roberto Savona, 2021. "Learning about Unprecedented Events: Agent-Based Modelling and the Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," Working Papers 2021.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2021.26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2021-026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Thaler & Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman & Alan Schwartz, 1997. "The Effect of Myopia and Loss Aversion on Risk Taking: An Experimental Test," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 647-661.
    2. Staccioli, Jacopo & Napoletano, Mauro, 2021. "An agent-based model of intra-day financial markets dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 331-348.
    3. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2020. "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 8334, CESifo.
    4. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F. Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    8. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2015. "Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 310-314, May.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
    11. Wagner, Alexander F. & Ramelli, Stefano, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    13. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    14. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 0. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    15. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bazzana, Davide & Colturato, Michele & Savona, Roberto, 2021. "Learning about Unprecedented Events: Agent-Based Modelling and the Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," FEEM Working Papers 314928, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Financial contagion during COVID–19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Neng Wang & Xiao Xu & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function," NBER Working Papers 27829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2021. "The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Beirne, John Beirne & Renzhi, Nuobu & Sugandi, Eric Alexander & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Schell, Daniel & Wang, Mei & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "This time is indeed different: A study on global market reactions to public health crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Hansen, Stephen & Davis, Steven & Seminario-Amez, Cristhian, 2020. "Firm-level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bellucci, Andrea & Borisov, Alexander & Gucciardi, Gianluca & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2023. "The reallocation effects of COVID-19: Evidence from venture capital investments around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Kamphol Panyagometh, 2020. "The Effects of Pandemic Event on the Stock Exchange of Thailand," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Tetyana Balyuk & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Manju Puri, 2020. "Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 28114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Siemaszkiewicz Karolina, 2021. "Safe Haven Instruments – A Comparison Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "YOLO trading: Riding with the herd during the GameStop episode," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    17. Meral Kagitci, 2020. "The impact of COVID – 19 on the stocks’ yield from the pharmaceutical sector," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 9(5), pages 58-71, November.
    18. Rao, Purnima & Goyal, Nisha & Kumar, Satish & Hassan, M. Kabir & Shahimi, Shahida, 2021. "Vulnerability of financial markets in India: The contagious effect of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Kijkasiwat, Ploypailin & Arunachalam, Murugesh & Hammami, Helmi, 2021. "Covid-19 health policy intervention and volatility of Asian capital markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Do, Hung & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Learning from SARS: Return and volatility connectedness in COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-Based Model; Representativeness; Unprecedented Events;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2021.26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.