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Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties: A Multivariate GARCH-M Modeling Evidence for Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Perekunah B. Eregha

    (Pan-Atlantic University, Lekki-Lagos. Nigeria)

  • Arcade Ndoricimpa

    (University of Burundi, Burundi)

Abstract

The study applies a BEKK GARCH-M model to examine the effect of uncertainty on the levels of inflation and output growth in Nigeria. The results suggest a significant positive effect of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation, supporting the Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. In addition, uncertainty about inflation is found to be detrimental to output growth, supporting the Friedman’s (1977) hypothesis of a negative effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth. Uncertainty about growth does not have a significant effect on both the levels of inflation and output growth. The evidence in this study suggests that Nigeria should put in place policies minimizing inflation uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on the economy. In addition, the independence relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in Nigeria suggest that they can be treated separately as suggested by business cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2019. "Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties: A Multivariate GARCH-M Modeling Evidence for Nigeria," Working Papers 19/060, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:exs:wpaper:19/060
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    2. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    3. Ndoricimpa, Arcade, 2015. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in South Africa: Empirical evidence from an asymmetric multivariate GARCH-M model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 5-17.
    4. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1981. "Inflation and Real Growth: Some Empirical Results: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 497-501, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Output; Output Uncertainty; BEKK GARCH-M;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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