Fertility in Portugal, How persistent is it?
The decline in fertility that has been observed in Portugal is an apparent fact. From 1960 to 2002, the average number of children by woman has decreased from 3.1 to 1.5. Not ignoring this strong evidence of a sustainable decrease in fertility, the fact is that the numbers on the fertility rates by women? ages show different realities. At the first sight, the decline in fertility of younger women has been the result of a postponement of births given that a general increase in fertility rates has been observed for older women. A question that then comes up is the following: are these observed trajectories sustainable in the sense of reflecting persistence in time or are just mere phases of a cycle in fertility? The paper intents to start giving an answer to that question by the use of statistical techniques, in a univariate approach, which are adequate to measure the degree of persistence over time.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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- Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
- Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005.
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Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles,
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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- Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2004. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
- George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
- George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "Inflation Persistence during Periods of Structural Change: An Assessment Using Greek Data," Working Papers 13, Bank of Greece.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2004. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Working Paper Series 370, European Central Bank.
- Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2006. "UK Inflation Persistence: Policy or Nature?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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