IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Explaining Structural Change in Cardiovascular Mortality in Ireland 1995-2005: A Time Series Analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Richard Layte


  • Sinead O'Hara


  • Kathleen Bennett

    (Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, St. James's Hospital)

Registered author(s):

    Background: Deaths from circulatory respiratory causes among older age groups in Ireland fell sharply between 1995 and 2005 as did the seasonality of deaths from these causes. Objective: To examine whether a structural break has occurred in deaths from circulatory causes in Ireland between 1995 and 2005 and test whether this can be explained by changes in the prescribing of cardiovascular medications during the same period controlling for weather trends. Methods: Grouped logit Time series models were used to identify if and at which quarter a structural break occurred in Irish circulatory deaths between 1995 and 2005. Data on cardiovascular prescribing and temperature within the quarter were entered into the trend-break model to examine whether the structural break could be explained. Results: There was a reduction in circulatory deaths of 0.82%/quarter among men 1995-2005 which increased by 0.5%/quarter after the final quarter of 1999. The 25% excess winter deaths among men fell by 9% after Q4 1999. Among women the long term decline in deaths of 0.53%/quarter increased by 0.48% after Q1 2000 and seasonality was reduced by 6.8%. The structural break in trend and seasonality was higher among those aged 85+. Controlling for temperature, beta-blocker, ace-inhibitor and aspirin medications rendered the structural break indicator insignificant among all age groups for men. Diuretic, statin and calcium channel blocker medications could not explain the break point for men aged 75 to 84. Beta blocker, aspirin and calcium channel blocker medications explained mortality trends among all age groups among women. Ace inhibitor and statin could not explain trends amongst women aged 65-74 and nitrates and diuretics did not explain trends for any age group. Conclusions: Models suggest that cardiovascular prescribing significantly reduced circulatory mortality among men and women aged 65+ after 1999 in Ireland but the effect of prescribing was lower among women than men. Beta-blocker, ace inhibitor and aspirin medications were more successful than statin, diuretic and nitrates at explaining trends.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP300.

    in new window

    Date of creation: Jun 2009
    Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp300
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2

    Phone: (353-1) 863 2000
    Fax: (353-1) 863 2100
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. Frances Ruane & Xiaoheng Zhang, 2007. "Location Choices of the Pharmaceutical Industry in Europe after 1992," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp220, IIIS.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.