The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections
Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
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| Date of creation: | 09 Nov 2011 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Publication status: | published |
| Handle: | RePEc:ese:iserwp:2011-29 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK Phone: 44-1206-872957 Fax: 44-1206-873151 Web page: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ Email: More information through EDIRC
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| Order Information: | Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK Web: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Colm O'Muircheartaigh & Peter Lynn, 1997. "Editorial: The 1997 UK Pre-election Polls," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 381-385.
- Paola Profeta, 2007. "Political support and tax reforms with an application to Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 141-155, April.
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