The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections
Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
|Date of creation:||09 Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK|
Web page: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK|
Web: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paola Profeta, 2007. "Political support and tax reforms with an application to Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 141-155, April.
- Colm O'Muircheartaigh & Peter Lynn, 1997. "Editorial: The 1997 UK Pre-election Polls," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 381-385.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2011-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Nears)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.