The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections
Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
|Date of creation:||09 Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK|
Web: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paola Profeta, 2007. "Political support and tax reforms with an application to Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 141-155, April.
- Colm O'Muircheartaigh & Peter Lynn, 1997. "Editorial: The 1997 UK Pre-election Polls," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 381-385.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2011-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Groves)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Paul Groves to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.