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The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections


  • Fumagalli, Laura
  • Sala, Emanuela


Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.

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  • Fumagalli, Laura & Sala, Emanuela, 2011. "The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections," ISER Working Paper Series 2011-29, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2011-29

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    1. Paola Profeta, 2007. "Political support and tax reforms with an application to Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 141-155, April.
    2. Colm O'Muircheartaigh & Peter Lynn, 1997. "Editorial: The 1997 UK Pre-election Polls," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 381-385.
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