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Evolución de la demanda de importaciones de México: 1940-2009

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  • José Romero

    () (El Colegio de México)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an aggregate import demand function for México, and to discuss the implications of the results. Estimation is based on quarterly data for real imports, real GDP and relative prices over the period 1940-2009. In our empirical analysis of the aggregate import demand function for México, cointegration and error correction technique have been used. This analysis suggests that a cointegrating relationship exists between these variables. In our study we got more than one cointegrating relationship among these variables. More than one cointegrating relationship means more stability in the system. We also found that a structural change happen after 1982 so we estimated two demand functions one for each period. Our econometric estimates of the aggregate import demand function for México suggest that import demand in the second period is overwhelming dominated by GDP and weekly affected by relative prices. This turns fiscal and monetary policies infective to regulate the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • José Romero, 2010. "Evolución de la demanda de importaciones de México: 1940-2009," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-03, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
  • Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-03
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    File URL: http://cee.colmex.mx/documentos/documentos-de-trabajo/2010/dt20103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Mohsm S. & Ross, Knud Z., 1977. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 149-160.
    2. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 607-613.
    3. Melo, Oscar & Vogt, Michael G., 1984. "Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 351-358.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 93-115.
    5. Zelal Kotan & Mesut Saygili, 1999. "Estimating an Import Function for Turkey," Discussion Papers 9909, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1383-1414.
    7. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    9. Shahe Emran, M. & Shilpi, Forhad, 1996. "Foreign exchange rationing and the aggregate import demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 315-322, June.
    10. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 97-116.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    México; importaciones; exportaciones; propensión a importar;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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