IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emx/ceedoc/2010-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evolución de la demanda de importaciones de México: 1940-2009

Author

Listed:
  • José Romero

    () (El Colegio de México)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an aggregate import demand function for México, and to discuss the implications of the results. Estimation is based on quarterly data for real imports, real GDP and relative prices over the period 1940-2009. In our empirical analysis of the aggregate import demand function for México, cointegration and error correction technique have been used. This analysis suggests that a cointegrating relationship exists between these variables. In our study we got more than one cointegrating relationship among these variables. More than one cointegrating relationship means more stability in the system. We also found that a structural change happen after 1982 so we estimated two demand functions one for each period. Our econometric estimates of the aggregate import demand function for México suggest that import demand in the second period is overwhelming dominated by GDP and weekly affected by relative prices. This turns fiscal and monetary policies infective to regulate the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • José Romero, 2010. "Evolución de la demanda de importaciones de México: 1940-2009," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-03, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cee.colmex.mx/documentos/documentos-de-trabajo/2010/dt20103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Mohsm S. & Ross, Knud Z., 1977. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 149-160, May.
    2. Melo, Oscar & Vogt, Michael G., 1984. "Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 351-358, April.
    3. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    6. Zelal Kotan & Mesut Saygili, 1999. "Estimating an Import Function for Turkey," Discussion Papers 9909, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    9. Shahe Emran, M. & Shilpi, Forhad, 1996. "Foreign exchange rationing and the aggregate import demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 315-322, June.
    10. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    México; importaciones; exportaciones; propensión a importar;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rocío Contreras Romo). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.