IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ema/worpap/2013-17.html

Sensitivity Analysis of Domestic Credit to Private Sector in Pakistan: A Variable Replacement Approach Application with Con-integration

Author

Listed:
  • Mondher bellalah
  • SYED ALAMDAR ALI
  • Omar Masood

    (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise
    Superior University, Lahore, Pakistan
    Royal Business School, University of East London)

Abstract

This study examines the short and long run relationship between Domestic Credit to Private Sector (DCPS) and its selected determinants namely, Domestic Credit to Public Sector, Gross Domestic Savings, Gross Domestic Product, Industrial Value Addition, Money Supply (M2), and the Total Volume of Trade in Pakistan over the period from 1980 to 2009. The relationship is determined using Johansen and Juselius’s framework and NLS and ARM based Error Correction Model to complete the long run and short run relationship analysis. We have conducted Variable replacement based sensitivity analysis of our model by examining two sets of exogenous variables and found that DCPS has no relationship with Economic Growth in Pakistan so far. The implications that we derive from this study is that in Pakistan the Development of Financial Sector is not making any contribution to the Economic Development. Further due to heavy Government Borrowings for non development Expenditures the lending actions of the Banks are becoming oligopolistic in nature, which is hindering the conventional flow of financing to private sector for economic development. Therefore, the monetary authority in Pakistan should adopt steeper target oriented policies for Financial Sector to extend credit for Economic Development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mondher bellalah & SYED ALAMDAR ALI & Omar Masood, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis of Domestic Credit to Private Sector in Pakistan: A Variable Replacement Approach Application with Con-integration," Thema Working Papers 2013-17, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thema-cergy.eu/repec/pdf/2013-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Era Dabla-Norris & Erasmus K. Kersting & Geneviève Verdier, 2012. "Firm Productivity, Innovation, and Financial Development," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 422-449, October.
    2. Hartmann, Philipp & Papaioannou, Elias & Lo Duca, Marco & Heider, Florian, 2007. "The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 72, European Central Bank.
    3. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
    5. Fisman, Raymond & Love, Inessa, 2004. "Financial development and growth in the short and long run," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3319, The World Bank.
    6. Philipp Hartmann & Florian Heider & Elias Papaioannou & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 72, European Central Bank.
    7. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    8. Koivu, Tuuli, 2002. "Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Tuuli Koivu, 2002. "Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries?," Macroeconomics 0212013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Era Dabla-Norris & Erasmus K. Kersting & Geneviève Verdier, 2012. "Firm Productivity, Innovation, and Financial Development," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 422-449, October.
    11. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    12. Baltensperger, Ernst, 1976. "The Borrower-Lender Relationship, Competitive Equilibrium, and the Theory of Hedonic Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 401-405, June.
    13. Rousseau, Peter L & Wachtel, Paul, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Performance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 657-678, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-452 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. F. Arizala & E. Cavallo & A. Galindo, 2013. "Financial development and TFP growth: cross-country and industry-level evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 433-448, March.
    3. Era Dabla-Norris & Erasmus K. Kersting & Geneviève Verdier, 2012. "Firm Productivity, Innovation, and Financial Development," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 422-449, October.
    4. von Furstenberg, George M., 2004. "The Contribution of Rapid Financial Development to Asymmetric Growth of Manufacturing Industries: Common Claims vs. Evidence for Poland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    6. Joel Peress & jim goldman, 2016. "Firm Innovation and Financial Analysis: How Do They Interact?," 2016 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis & Demetrios Moschos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Financial Development and Economic Activity in Advanced and Developing Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 163-177, February.
    8. Kar, Muhsin & NazlIoglu, Saban & AgIr, Hüseyin, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 685-693, January.
    9. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    10. Saša Obradović & Milka Grbić, 2015. "Causality Relationship between Financial Intermediation by Banks and Economic Growth: Evidence from Serbia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 60-72.
    11. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2000. "Financial structure and economic development - firm, industry, and country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2423, The World Bank.
    12. Garretsen, Harry & Lensink, Robert & Sterken, Elmer, 2000. "Development of stock markets, societal norms and legal institutions," CCSO Working Papers 200002, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    13. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign-Owned Banks in CESEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Haselmann, Rainer & Marsch, Katharina, 2009. "Real Effects of Bank Governance: Bank Ownership and Corporate Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Laura Cojocaru & Evangelos M. Falaris & Saul D. Hoffman & Jeffrey B. Miller, 2016. "Financial System Development and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: New Empirical Evidence from the CEE and CIS Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 223-236, January.
    16. repec:rnp:ppaper:mn38 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Plehn-Dujowich, Jose M., 2009. "Endogenous growth and adverse selection in entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1419-1436, July.
    18. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    20. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2001. "Law, politics, and finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2585, The World Bank.
    21. Laura Cojocaru & Saul Hoffman & Jeffrey Miller, 2011. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: Empirical Evidence from the CEE and CIS Countries," Working Papers 11-22, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    22. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Collin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/themafr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.