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Secular stagnation, rational bubbles, and fiscal policy

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  • Teulings, Coen

Abstract

It is well known that rational bubbles can be sustained in balanced growth path of a deterministic economy when the return to capital r is equal to the growth rate g. When there is a lack of stores of value, bubbles can implement an e¢ cient allocation. This paper considers a world where r áuctuates over time due to shocks to the marginal productivity of capital. Then, bubbles further e¢ ciency, though they cannot implement Örst best. While bubbles can only be sustained when r = g in a deterministic economy, r > g "on average" in a stochastic economy. Fiscal policy improves welfare by adding an extra asset. Where only the elderly contribute to shifting resources between investment and consumption in a bubbly economy, Öscal policy allows part of that burden to be shifted to the young. Contrary to common wisdom, trade in bubbly assets implements intergenerational transfers, while Öscal policy implements intragenerational transfers. Hence, while bubbles and Öscal policy are perfect substitutes in the deterministic economy, Öscal policy dominates bubbles in a stochastic economy. For plausible parameter values, a higher degree of dynamic ine¢ ciency should lead to a higher sovereign debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Teulings, Coen, 2016. "Secular stagnation, rational bubbles, and fiscal policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86220, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86220
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86220/
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    Cited by:

    1. Abu Jalal & Shahriar Khaksari, 2020. "Cash cycle: A cross‐country analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 635-671, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rational bubbles; fiscal policy; secular stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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