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Debt revenue and the sustainability of public debt

Author

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  • Reis, Ricardo

Abstract

While public debt has risen in the last two decades, the return that it offers to investors has fallen, especially relative to the return on private investment. This creates a revenue for the government as the supplier of the special services offered by public bonds, which include storage of value, safety, liquidity, and reprieve from repression. The present value of this debt revenue is large relative to the stock of public debt, keeping it sustainable even as the present value of primary balances is zero or negative. It gives rise to different policy tradeoffs than the conventional analysis of primary balances and makes different recommendation on the effects of austerity, the optimal amount of debt, or the spillovers between monetary and fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Debt revenue and the sustainability of public debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118125, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118125
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/118125/
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Nsambu Kijjambu & Benjamin Musiita & Asaph Kaburura Katarangi & Geoffrey Kahangane & Sheilla Akampwera, 2023. "Determinants of Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: The Public Debt Dynamics Model in Perspective," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 15(4), pages 106-124.
    2. Maximilian Boeck & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer & Tommaso Tornese, 2024. "Predicting Tail-Risks for the Italian Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(3), pages 339-366, November.
    3. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Carmona-González, Nieves & Sánchez-Martín, María-Pilar & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2024. "Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 390-403.
    4. Economides, George & Koliousi, Giota & Miaouli, Natasha & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2025. "From debt arithmetic to fiscal sustainability and fiscal rules: Taking stock and policy lessons," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    5. Momo Komatsu & David Murakami & Ivan Shchapov, 2025. "Productivity over the life-cycle and its effect on the interest rate," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 429-461, April.
    6. Gergő Motyovszki & Philipp Pfeiffer & Jan in ’t Veld, 2024. "The Implications of Public Investment for Debt Sustainability," European Economy - Discussion Papers 204, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Can growth stabilize debt? A fiscal theory perspective," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland, revised 2024.
    8. Guillaume Bazot & David Guerreiro, 2025. "A decomposition of the labor share decline in the US business sector," AMSE Working Papers 2503, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. George‐Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian & Christian K. Wolf, 2024. "Can Deficits Finance Themselves?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1390, September.
    10. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. repec:aif:report:v:11:y:2026:i:1:p:105-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro & Payá, Iván, 2025. "Public debt burden and crisis severity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    13. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Shobande, Olatunji A. & Ogbeifun, Lawrence, 2025. "Debt by rules: Recrafting impact of infrastructure investments and business cycles on debt sustainability," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 282-306.
    15. Osband, Kent & Filoso, Valerio & Capasso, Salvatore, 2024. "The limits of limitless debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Matthieu Bellon & Matthias Gnewuch, 2024. "Dangerous liaisons? Debt supply and convenience yield spillovers in the euro area," Working Papers 63, European Stability Mechanism, revised 06 Nov 2024.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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