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Determinants of Estonian Sovereign Credit Rating

Author

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  • Andres Vesilind
  • Ingrid Toming
  • Raoul Lättemäe

Abstract

The paper focuses on sovereign credit ratings assigned to Estonia and analyses their possible determinants. The first chapter gives an overview of different rating agencies and the methodology they use in rating process. Besides that the interpretation, comparability and explanatory power of different ratings are analysed. The chapter concludes with the description of Estonian rating history. The second chapter analyses the possible determinants of Estonian rating. Firstly, the possible problems in analysing the determinants are discussed. Secondly, the factors that have been seen as important determinants of ratings in theoretical literature or previous empirical researches are presented. The third chapter analyses empirically the determinants of Estonian credit rating. For this purpose, Estonia is analysed in the context of three country groups: former socialist countries, developed European countries and countries having similar ratings. Also the factors that different rating agencies have pointed out in their reports about Estonia are compared with the empirical results. The chapter concludes with the comparison of the results of the analysis and SWOT analysis. The results of the paper show that the most critical factors for Estonia that can constrain possible rating upgrade in the future are low nominal level of per capita GDP, high unemployment rate and high CA deficit. At the same time it should be looked after that other important indicators that have a strong relation with rating (such as inflation, fiscal balance, foreign debt level and speed of transition and EU accession) are kept under control.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Vesilind & Ingrid Toming & Raoul Lättemäe, 2001. "Determinants of Estonian Sovereign Credit Rating," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2001-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2001-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mr. Christian B. Mulder & Brieuc Monfort, 2000. "Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies: Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord," IMF Working Papers 2000/069, International Monetary Fund.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 1998/046, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    6. Patrick Sabourin, "undated". "Analyzing and Forecasting Credit Ratings: Some Canadian Evidence," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1999-02, Department of Finance Canada.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 1996/009, International Monetary Fund.
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