IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/wc2000/1668.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Warranted Skepticism: A Dynamic Model of Infant Industry Protection

Author

Listed:
  • Mitsuhiro Kaneda

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

The neo-classical model of infant industry protection is limited in that agents have static expectations. This paper incorporates a fundamental behavioral assumption, that agents base their decisions on future expectations. An analysis of the global perfect foresight dynamics exposes the rich relationship between protection and outcome, and new policy implications. If an industry is to be protected until its good is competitive in the world market, its success is as likely as its failure, explaining the unreliability of protection programs in practice. The industry's decline after an initial take-off can also be an equilibrium. For the industry's growth to be an equilibrium, protection can be removed before the industry achieves international competitiveness. For the industry's growth to be the unique equilibrium, protection has to continue even after international competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitsuhiro Kaneda, 2000. "Warranted Skepticism: A Dynamic Model of Infant Industry Protection," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1668, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1668.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krueger, Anne O & Tuncer, Baran, 1982. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1142-1152, December.
    2. J. Behrman & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    3. Rodrik, Rani, 1995. "Trade and industrial policy reform," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 45, pages 2925-2982, Elsevier.
    4. Panagariya, Arvind, 1986. "Increasing returns, dynamic stability, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 43-63, February.
    5. Harrison, Ann E, 1994. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1090-1095, September.
    6. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "Increasing returns, imperfect markets, and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 325-365, Elsevier.
    7. J. Behrman & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 4.
    8. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    9. Aaron Tornell, 1991. "Time Inconsistency of Protectionist Programs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 963-974.
    10. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "The market size, entrepreneurship, and the big push," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 347-364, December.
    11. Krueger, Anne O., 1984. "Trade policies in developing countries," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 519-569, Elsevier.
    12. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    13. Kaneda Mitsuhiro, 1995. "Industrialization under Perfect Foresight: A World Economy with a Continuum of Countries," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 437-462, August.
    14. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-1268, September.
    15. Bell, Martin & Ross-Larson, Bruce & Westphal, Larry E., 1984. "Assessing the performance of infant industries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 101-128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaneda, Mitsuhiro, 2003. "Policy designs in a dynamic model of infant industry protection," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 91-115, October.
    2. Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1997. "Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 783-806, December.
    3. Matsui, Akihiko & Oyama, Daisuke, 2006. "Rationalizable foresight dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-322, August.
    4. Françoise Drumetz & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Pierre Jaillard, 1993. "La convergence régionale et l'UEM," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 262(1), pages 135-147.
    5. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. , & , & ,, 2008. "Monotone methods for equilibrium selection under perfect foresight dynamics," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), June.
    7. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    8. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Howard Wall, 2008. "Is there too little immigration? An analysis of temporary skilled migration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 197-211.
    9. Matthias Busse & José L. Groizard, 2008. "Technology Trade in Economic Development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 569-592, April.
    10. Diana Barros (a) Aurora A.C. Teixeira (b), 2021. "A Portrait of Development Economics in the Last Sixty Years," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 69-118, June.
    11. Denis Delgay-Troïse, 1993. "Distorsions sur les marchés des facteurs et évolution des spécialisations internationales," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(1), pages 51-70.
    12. Bryan Graham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-41, March.
    13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Mohamed, 2007. "Further results on projection-based inference in IV regressions with weak, collinear or missing instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 133-153, July.
    14. Roy J. Ruffin & Wilfred J. Ethier, 2011. "Protectionism and Increasing Returns with Comparative-Cost Disadvantage," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 696-713, November.
    16. SHIBUYA Hiroshi, 2001. "Economic Takeoff and Capital Flight," ESRI Discussion paper series 008, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Gans, Joshua S., 1998. "Time Lags and Indicative Planning in a Dynamic Model of Industrialization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-130, June.
    18. Joseph F. Francois & Douglas Nelson, 2002. "A Geometry Of Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 649-678, July.
    19. Falvey, Rod & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Factor endowments, nontradables prices and measures of 'openness'," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 101-122, February.
    20. Berry, R. Albert, 2001. "Policy response to poverty and inequality in the developing world: where should the priorities lie?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 33125, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.