On the Evolutionary Emergence of Optimism
Successful individuals were frequently found to be overly optimistic. This is puzzling because it might be thought that optimistic individuals who consistently overestimate their eventual payoffs will not do as well as realists who see the situation as it truly is and hence will not survive evolutionary pressures. We show that contrary to this intuition, there is a large class of either competitive or cooperative strategic interactions between randomly matched pairs of individuals in the population, in which "cautiously" optimistic individuals not only survive but also prosper and take over the entire population. The reason for this result is that optimistic individuals who overestimate the impact of their actions on their payoffs, behave more aggressively than realists and pessimists. When the interactions between individuals involve negative externalities (the payoff of one player decreases with the actions taken by another player) and the actions are strategic substitutes, being aggressive induces the opponent to be softer, so optimists gain a strategic advantage that, for moderate levels of optimism, outweighs the loss from having the wrong perception of the environment. Likewise, when the interactions between individuals involve positive externalities and the actions are strategic complements, being aggressive triggers a favorable aggressive behavior from the opponent. Hence, in both cases, cautiously optimistic types fare better on average than other types of individuals. We show that if the initial distribution of types is sufficiently wide, then over time it will converge in distribution to a mass point on some level of cautious optimism.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- JÃrg Oechssler & Frank Riedel, 2001.
"Evolutionary dynamics on infinite strategy spaces,"
Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 17(1), pages 141-162.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Riedel, Frank, 1998. "Evolutionary dynamics on infinite strategy spaces," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,68, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Oechssler, Joerg & Frank Riedel, 1999. "Evolutionary Dynamics on Infinite Strategy Spaces," Discussion Paper Serie A 606, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Joerg Oechssler & Frank Riedel, 1998. "Evolutionary Dynamics on Infinite Strategy Spaces," Game Theory and Information 9805002, EconWPA, revised 12 May 1998.
- Ok, E.A. & Vega-Redondo, F., 1999. "On the Evolution of Individualistic Preferences: Complete Versus Incomplete Information Scenarios," Working Papers 99-07, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Robson, Arthur J., 1996. "A Biological Basis for Expected and Non-expected Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 397-424, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1649. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.