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Simple Monetary Policy Rules for Developing Countries

  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Ruy Lama

This paper evaluates the performance of simple monetary policy rules in a calibrated model for the Chilean economy. The monetary regimes considered are: exchange rate peg, money peg, inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting, and a Taylor rule. We develop a small open economy model with tradable and nontradable goods, monopolistic competition and staggered prices á la Calvo. Business cycles fluctuations in the economy are driven by three types of shocks: foreign interest rate, productivity, and government expenditure. In this environment, the role of monetary policy is to offset as much as possible the distortions in the economy, namely staggered prices and monopolistic competition. We ranked the rules according to their ablity to smooth consumption and leisure of the representative household. The welfare analysis suggests that, depending on the source of the shock, it is optimal to stabilize either the price of the tradable goods or the nontradable goods. Rules with these targets are welfare superior to other monetary regimes, such as CPI inflation targeting or money peg. Our analysis tend to support some exchange rate intervention in order to achieve an efficient allocation of resources.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 248.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:248
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  1. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  2. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
  3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
  4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  6. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. McCallum, B.T. & Nelson, E., 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Papers 644, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  10. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
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