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Simple Monetary Policy Rules for Developing Countries

  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Ruy Lama

This paper evaluates the performance of simple monetary policy rules in a calibrated model for the Chilean economy. The monetary regimes considered are: exchange rate peg, money peg, inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting, and a Taylor rule. We develop a small open economy model with tradable and nontradable goods, monopolistic competition and staggered prices á la Calvo. Business cycles fluctuations in the economy are driven by three types of shocks: foreign interest rate, productivity, and government expenditure. In this environment, the role of monetary policy is to offset as much as possible the distortions in the economy, namely staggered prices and monopolistic competition. We ranked the rules according to their ablity to smooth consumption and leisure of the representative household. The welfare analysis suggests that, depending on the source of the shock, it is optimal to stabilize either the price of the tradable goods or the nontradable goods. Rules with these targets are welfare superior to other monetary regimes, such as CPI inflation targeting or money peg. Our analysis tend to support some exchange rate intervention in order to achieve an efficient allocation of resources.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 248.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:248
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  1. Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  5. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
  8. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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