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Crowding-out or co-existence? the competitive position of EU members and China in global merchandise trade

Author

Listed:
  • Wörz, Julia
  • Benkovskis, Konstantins
  • Silgoner, Maria
  • Steiner, Katharina

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse export competition between individual EU Member States and China in third-country goods markets. We find that competitive pressure from China is strongest for small and peripheral EU members, especially for the Southern periphery, Ireland and Central, Eastern and South-eastern European EU members. While we find no hard evidence for "cut-throat" competition between China and EU countries, we see an increasing tendency of smaller EU exporters leaving markets that are increasingly served by China. We base our findings on traditional market share analysis, the exploration of intensive versus extensive margin export growth and on a Dynamic Trade Link Analysis. The latter, a newly developed tool, identifies different types of competitive pressure at the detailed product-destination market level. We use UN Comtrade data at the highest level of disaggregation (6-digit HS) for 75 world exporters and importers over the period 2000-2011. JEL Classification: F14, F15, O57

Suggested Citation

  • Wörz, Julia & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Silgoner, Maria & Steiner, Katharina, 2013. "Crowding-out or co-existence? the competitive position of EU members and China in global merchandise trade," Working Paper Series 1617, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131617
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1617.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 4, pages 115-148 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 25-58.
    3. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    4. Konstantīns Beņkovskis, 2012. "Competitiveness of Latvia's exporters," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 17-45, December.
    5. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 371-379.
    6. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ramune Rimgailaite, 2011. "The quality and variety of exports from the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(4), pages 723-747, October.
    7. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 157-177.
    8. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    9. Mary Amiti & Caroline Freund, 2010. "The Anatomy of China's Export Growth," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 35-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, pages 347-365.
    12. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    13. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, pages 1140-1159.
    14. Christian Schitter & Maria Silgoner & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE at the EU-15 Market," FIW Working Paper series 096, FIW.
    15. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "The World Market: Market Shares and Export Performances," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 231.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silgoner, Maria & Steiner, Katharina & Wörz, Julia & Schitter, Christian, 2015. "Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 68-83.
    2. repec:ecb:ecbops:2012163 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Osbat, Chiara & Zollino, Francesco & CompNet Task Force & Aiello, Giovanni & Bluhm, Benjamin & Buelens, Christian & Cavallini, Flavia & Joseph, Andreas & Leonte, Alexandru & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Momc, 2015. "Compendium on the diagnostic toolkit for competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 163, European Central Bank.
    4. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, "undated". "Crisis and Recovery in the German Economy: The Real Lessons," Working Papers Series 10, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    5. Storm, Servaas & Naastepad, C.W.M., 2015. "Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 11-24.
    6. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, 2015. "NAIRU economics and the Eurozone crisis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 843-877, November.
    7. Francesca Gambarotto & Stefano Solari, 2015. "The peripheralization of Southern European capitalism within the EMU," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 788-812.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; competitiveness; European Union; extensive margin; sectoral market shares; trade links;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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