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Crowding-out or co-existence? the competitive position of EU members and China in global merchandise trade

  • Benkovskis, Konstantins
  • Silgoner, Maria
  • Steiner, Katharina
  • Wörz, Julia

In this paper, we analyse export competition between individual EU Member States and China in third-country goods markets. We find that competitive pressure from China is strongest for small and peripheral EU members, especially for the Southern periphery, Ireland and Central, Eastern and South-eastern European EU members. While we find no hard evidence for "cut-throat" competition between China and EU countries, we see an increasing tendency of smaller EU exporters leaving markets that are increasingly served by China. We base our findings on traditional market share analysis, the exploration of intensive versus extensive margin export growth and on a Dynamic Trade Link Analysis. The latter, a newly developed tool, identifies different types of competitive pressure at the detailed product-destination market level. We use UN Comtrade data at the highest level of disaggregation (6-digit HS) for 75 world exporters and importers over the period 2000-2011. JEL Classification: F14, F15, O57

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1617.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131617
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  1. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christian Schitter & Maria Silgoner & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE at the EU-15 Market," FIW Working Paper series 096, FIW.
  3. Mary Amiti & Caroline Freund, 2010. "The Anatomy of China's Export Growth," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 35-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2006. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 642-674, December.
  5. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, 02.
  6. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2005. "World Trade Competitiveness: A Disaggregated View by Shift-Share Analysis," Working Papers 2005-23, CEPII research center.
  7. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 25-58, February.
  8. Konstantīns Beņkovskis, 2012. "Competitiveness of Latvia's exporters," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 17-45, December.
  9. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ramune Rimgailaite, 2011. "The quality and variety of exports from the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(4), pages 723-747, October.
  10. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  11. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
  12. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  13. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-77, March.
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