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The gravity model, global value chain and the brazilian states


  • Joachim Guilhoto

    () (Department of Economics, FEA, University of São Paulo)

  • Jean-Marc Siroën

    () (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine,LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL, 75016 Paris, France)

  • Ayçil Yücer

    () (University of Dokuz Eylül,Department of Economics, Izmir 35160 Turkey, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL, 75016 Paris, France)


The WTO and the OECD along with many other organizations, suggest trade in value-added is a “better” measuring system than gross value in order to better understand the impact of trade on employment, growth and production . When it comes to the "domestic" value chain and internal specializations, internal trade statistics are rarely available. In this work we use a gravity model based on the estimation of exports of the Brazilian states, considered as trade entities, both in traditional terms of gross value and in terms of value-added. Our method is based on an Input-Output table for 2008. The results of the bilateral gravity model for the Brazilian states' exports show that the main determinants (GDP, distance etc.) are fairly similar when exports are estimated in gross or value-added terms. _________________________________ L'OMC et l'OCDE ainsi que de nombreuses organisations internationales, suggèrent que l’évaluation du commerce en valeur ajoutée est «meilleure» que celle en valeur brute car elle permet de mieux saisir l'impact du commerce sur l'emploi, la croissance et la production. Quand il s’agit de la chaîne de valeur "domestique" les statistiques commerciales internes sont rarement disponibles. Dans ce travail, nous utilisons un modèle de gravité qui estime les exportations des États brésiliens, considérés comme des entités commerciales, à la fois en termes traditionnels de valeur brute et en termes de valeur ajoutée. Notre méthode est basée sur une table d'entrées-sorties pour 2008. Les résultats du modèle de gravité pour les exportations des États brésiliens montrent que les principaux déterminants du commerce (PIB, distance, etc.) ont des élasticités similaires lorsque les exportations sont estimées en valeur brute ou en valeur ajoutée.

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim Guilhoto & Jean-Marc Siroën & Ayçil Yücer, 2015. "The gravity model, global value chain and the brazilian states," Working Papers DT/2015/02, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201502

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daria Taglioni & Richard Baldwin, 2014. "Gravity chains: Estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 61-82, November.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    4. Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Can Multistage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 364-393, March.
    5. Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö & Petri Rouvinen & Timo Seppälä & Pekka Ylä-Anttila, 2011. "Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains? Case Nokia N95 Smartphone," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-278, September.
    6. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    7. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    8. Bosker, Maarten & Westbrock, Bastian, 2014. "A theory of trade in a global production network," CEPR Discussion Papers 9870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Guilhoto, J. J. M. & Sesso Filho, U. A., 2005. "Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir De Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais
      [Estimation of input-output matrix using preliminary data from national accounts]
      ," MPRA Paper 38212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Sesso Filho, Umberto Antonio, 2010. "Estimação da matriz insumo-produto utilizando dados preliminares das contas nacionais: aplicação e análise de indicadores econômicos para o Brasil em 2005
      [Estimation of input-output matrix using p
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Olczyk & Aleksandra Kordalska, 2017. "Gross Exports Versus Value-Added Exports: Determinants and Policy Implications for Manufacturing Sectors in Selected CEE Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 91-109, January.

    More about this item


    Vertical Specialization; Global supply-chain; Input-Output Analysis; Brazil; Intranational trade; Spécialisation verticale; chaîne globale de valeur; analyse Input-Output; Brésil; Commerce international.;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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