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To what extent do rising mortality inequalities by education and marital status attenuate the general mortality decline? The case of Finland in 1971-2030

  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Evgueni M. Andreev

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Dmitri A. Jdanov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Domantas Jasilionis

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Tapani Valkonen
Registered author(s):

    This study examines the relationship between growing inequality within the population, and the general mortality decline in Finland after 1971. The general mortality trend is considered as a simultaneous shift of population groups toward lower mortality over time, with the group-specific mortality rates linked to the mortality trend in the best practice (vanguard) group. The inequality measure accounting for all groups and their population weights reveals increases in both relative and absolute mortality inequalities. Changes in population composition by education and by marital status tend to compensate each other and the combined change does not produce significant effect on the total mortality. The widening of mortality inequalities produces important impact on the total mortality trend. The modeling allows to quantify this impact. If mortality inequalities remained frozen after 2000, the total mortality in 2026-30 would be by about one quarter lower compared to trend-based expectations.

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    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2009-018.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-018
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    1. Koskinen, Seppo & Martelin, Tuija, 1994. "Why are socioeconomic mortality differences smaller among women than among men?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1385-1396, May.
    2. Valkonen, Tapani, 1993. "Problems in the measurement and international comparison of socio-economic differences in mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 409-418, February.
    3. Iliana V. Kohler & Pekka Martikainen & Kirsten P. Smith & Irma Elo, 2008. "Educational differences in all-cause mortality by marital status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(60), pages 2011-2042, December.
    4. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, healthy life expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rat," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(14), pages 499-522, October.
    5. Catherine Ross & John Mirowsky, 1999. "Refining the association between education and health: The effects of quantity, credential, and selectivity," Demography, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 445-460, November.
    6. FFF1Anton E. NNN1Kunst & FFF2Vivian NNN2Bos & FFF2Otto NNN2Andersen & FFF2Mario NNN2Cardano & FFF2Giuseppe NNN2Costa & FFF2Seeromanie NNN2Harding & FFF2Örjan NNN2Hemström & FFF2Richard NNN2Layte & FFF, 2004. "Monitoring of trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(9), pages 229-254, April.
    7. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
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