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The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Grigoriev
  • France Meslé
  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
  • Evgeny Andreev
  • Agnieszka Fihel
  • Marketa Pechholdova
  • Jacques Vallin

Abstract

type="main"> The health situation in Russia has often been characterized as a long-running crisis. From the 1960s until the beginning of the 2000s, the declining life expectancy trend was substantially interrupted only twice: once in the mid-1980s as a result of Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign, and again at the end of the 1990s as a result of the “rebound” effect following the dramatic rise in mortality associated with the acute socioeconomic crisis. In both cases, the progress made proved to be short-lived. A third mortality decline in Russia began in 2003 and is still ongoing. We investigate the components and driving forces of this new development, in particular the role played by cardiovascular diseases. Using cause-specific mortality data, we identify the main features of the recent improvements and compare these features with those observed in selected European countries, specifically France, Poland, and Estonia. Our aim is to gauge whether the features of the improvements in these countries are similar to those of the recent advancements made in Russia. Although the recent improvements in Russia have features in common with initial stages of prior mortality declines in other countries and may support optimism about the future, a return to mortality stagnation cannot be ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Grigoriev & France Meslé & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdova & Jacques Vallin, 2014. "The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 107-129, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:40:y:2014:i:1:p:107-129
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00652.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Field, Mark G., 1995. "The health crisis in the former Soviet Union: A report from the 'post-war' zone," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 41(11), pages 1469-1478, December.
    2. Elizabeth Brainerd & David M. Cutler, 2005. "Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    3. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, healthy life expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rat," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(14), pages 499-522, October.
    4. repec:aph:ajpbhl:2004:94:12:2177-2187_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Evgueni M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev & Martin McKee & David A. Leon, 2013. "Components and possible determinants of decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(32), pages 917-950, April.
    7. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Paniccia, Renato (ed.), 2000. "The Mortality Crisis in Transitional Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198297413.
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    1. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9452-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lyytikäinen, Laura & Kemppainen, Teemu, 2016. "Regional inequalities in self-rated health in Russia: What is the role of social and economic capital?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 92-99.
    3. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2016. "The mortality crisis in transition economies," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 298-298, October.
    4. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9456-y is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Todd, Megan A. & Shkolnikov, Vladimir M. & Goldman, Noreen, 2016. "Why are well-educated Muscovites more likely to survive? Understanding the biological pathways," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 138-147.
    6. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9455-z is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9451-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. José M. Aburto Flores & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2017. "Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy fluctuation: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Maria Silvana Salvini & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Isabella Corazziari, 2015. "Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    10. Géraldine Duthé & Michel Guillot & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin & Irina Badurashvili & Mikhail Denisenko & Natalia Gavrilova & Karine Kuyumjyan & Liudmila Torgasheva, 2017. "Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union’s southern tier: Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(19), pages 589-608, February.

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