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Affective Utilities: A Rational Theory of Optimistic Bias in Asset Markets

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The equilibrium prices in asset markets, as stated by Keynes (1930): "...will be fixed at the point at which the sales of the bears and the purchases of the bulls are balanced." We propose a descriptive theory of finance explicating Keynes' claim that the prices of assets today equilibrate the optimism and pessimism of bulls and bears regarding the payoffs of assets tomorrow. This equilibration of optimistic and pessimistic beliefs of investors is a consequence of investors maximizing affective utilities subject to budget constraints defined by market prices and investor's income. The set of affective utilities is a new class of non-expected utility functions representing the attitudes of investors for optimism or pessimism, defined as the composition of the investor's attitudes for risk and her attitudes for ambiguity. Bulls and bears are defined respectively as optimistic and pessimistic investors.

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  • Anat Bracha & Donald J. Brown, 2013. "Affective Utilities: A Rational Theory of Optimistic Bias in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1898R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1898r
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    1. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
    2. Bracha, Anat & Brown, Donald J., 2012. "Affective decision making: A theory of optimism bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 67-80.
    3. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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