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Properties Of Two U.S. Inflation Measures (1985-2005)

  • Eva Vicente Martinez

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    Analyses are presented of 84 quarterly observations 1/85-4/05 on two U.S. index numbers of nominal prices often employed to measure inflation. Analyses are designed to answer two key questions of interest to macroeconomists. Is inflation stationary (I(0)) or stochastically non-stationary (I(1))? If it is I(1), is it scalar or multivariate? Both measures of inflation are found clearly to be I(1) and, for these measures, inflation is found clearly to be scalar. The paper also illustrates univariate analysis procedures (and report standards) considered to be more effective and convincing than those found in the existing literature on inflation measures.

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    File URL: http://docubib.uc3m.es/WORKINGPAPERS/WS/ws066818.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws066818.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws066818
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    1. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
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    4. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    5. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.
    6. Elena Andreou & Aris Spanos, 2003. "Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 217-237, January.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    8. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
    9. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    10. William J. Crowder & Mark E. Wohar, 1999. "Are Tax Effects Important in the Long-Run Fisher Relationship? Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 307-317, 02.
    11. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    13. Guy Melard, 1984. "Algorithm AS197: a fast algorithm for the exact likelihood of autoregressive-moving average models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13692, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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