Who Escapes Conflict? Regional Selection of Spanish Republican Exiles to Mexico

When a conflict breaks out, some people escape, and others remain. Who can escape, and how does it depend on where they live? The most recent literature suggests that Spanish exiles who moved to Mexico, escaping the effects of the Civil War, were very positively selected in terms of human capital. This paper addresses whether this positive selection was homogeneous all around Spain, or if the ability to escape the war presented regional differences. Using an original database at the microeconomic level created from the Mexican National Registry of Foreigners and estimations of regional stature benchmarks from Spanish military records, we compare the height of each male exile with the average height of the conscripts from the same region and birth cohort. We show that positive selection was indeed high on average, but also that significant regional differences exist. We then test if these differences could be explained by differences in the cost and possibilities to escape. Our results indicate that exiles born in regions farther from international land frontiers were more positively selected. On the other hand, exiles from regions that remained longer under the control of the Republic, with stronger potential networks in Mexico before the war and access to subsidised ships to travel to Mexico, show a lower degree of selection. These findings suggest that forced migrations are not only shaped by the direct effects of repression and violence, but also by the ability of those suffering it to escape. This situation created unequal opportunities: in some regions, escaping became not just a necessity but also a privilege.