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Earnings Instability and Tenure

  • Lorenzo Cappellari


    (DISCE, Università Cattolica)

  • Marco Leonardi


    (Dipartimento di Studi del Lavoro, Università di Milano)

This paper develops a tractable empirical approach to estimate the effect of on-the-job tenure on the permanent and transitory variance of earnings. The model is also used to evaluate the earnings instability associated with fixed-term contract (short-tenure contracts) in Italy. Our results indicate that each year of tenure on the job reduces earnings instability on average by 15%. Workers on a fixed-term contract on average have an earnings instability 10% higher than workers on a permanent contract. Workers who spend their entire working life on fixed-term contracts can expect an earnings instability twice as high.

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Paper provided by Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE) in its series DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro with number ieil0048.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie4:ieil0048
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  1. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2002. "The dynamics and inequality of Italian male earnings: permanent changes or transitory fluctuations?," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C2-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  2. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2002. "Earnings dynamics and uncertainty in Italy: how do they differ between the private and public sectors?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 477-496, September.
  3. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:2:p:439-79 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Daniel Parent, 1995. "Industry-Specific Capital and the Wage Profile: Evidence from the NLSY and the PSID," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-26, CIRANO.
  5. Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-66, July.
  6. Molly Dahl & Thomas DeLeire & Jonathan A. Schwabish, 2011. "Estimates of Year-to-Year Volatility in Earnings and in Household Incomes from Administrative, Survey, and Matched Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(4), pages 750-774.
  7. Joseph G. Altonji & Nicolas Williams, 2005. "Do wages rise with job seniority? A reassessment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(3), pages 370-397, April.
  8. Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2001. "Insurance within the Firm," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 414, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Daniel Parent, 1995. "Matching, Human Capital, and the Covariance Structure of Earnings," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-25, CIRANO.
  10. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W06/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  11. David H. Autor & Susan Houseman, 2005. "Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from 'Work First'," NBER Working Papers 11743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Katharine G. Abraham & Henry S. Farber, 1986. "Job Duration, Seniority, and Earnings," NBER Working Papers 1819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2008. "Trends in Men's Earnings Volatility: What Does the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Show?," NBER Working Papers 14075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2002. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Earnings in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C68-C73, March.
  15. Joseph Altonji & R. Shakotko, 1985. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority?," Working Papers 567, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  16. Susan Dynarski & Jonathan Gruber, 1997. "Can Families Smooth Variable Earnings?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 229-303.
  17. Danielle Venn, 2011. "Earnings Volatility and its Consequences for Households," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 125, OECD Publishing.
  18. Fabian Lange, 2007. "The Speed of Employer Learning," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 1-35.
  19. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2004. "The Dynamics and Inequality of Italian Men’s Earnings: Long-term Changes or Transitory Fluctuations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
  20. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1988. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," NBER Working Papers 2649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone & Paolo Sestito, 2001. "Earnings Dispersion, Low Pay and Household Poverty in Italy, 1977-1998," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 427, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  22. Bingley, Paul & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Westergård-Nielsen, Niels C., 2013. "Unemployment Insurance, Wage Dynamics and Inequality over the Life Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 7128, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  23. Neal, Derek, 1995. "Industry-Specific Human Capital: Evidence from Displaced Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 653-77, October.
  24. Sule Celik & Chinhui Juhn & Kristin McCue & Jesse Thompson, 2009. "Understanding Earnings Instability: How Important are Employment Fluctuations and Job Changes?," Working Papers 09-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  25. Ann Huff Stevens, 2001. "Changes in earnings instability and job loss," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(1), pages 60-78, October.
  26. Leonardi, Marco, 2003. "Earnings Instability of Job Stayers and Job Changers," IZA Discussion Papers 946, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  27. Hospido, Laura, 2015. "Wage dynamics in the presence of unobserved individual and job heterogeneity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-93.
  28. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1994. "The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 217-272.
  29. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 2009. "The Rising Instability of U.S. Earnings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  30. Kalwij, Adriaan & Alessie, Rob, 2003. "Permanent and Transitory Wage Inequality of British Men, 1975-2001: Year, Age and Cohort Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 686, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  31. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September.
  32. Dickens, Richard, 2000. "The Evolution of Individual Male Earnings in Great Britain: 1975-95," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 27-49, January.
  33. Mortensen, Dale T, 1988. "Wages, Separations, and Job Tenure: On-the-Job Specific Training or Matching?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(4), pages 445-71, October.
  34. Xavier Ramos, 2003. "The Covariance Structure of Earnings in Great Britain, 1991-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(278), pages 353-374, 05.
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