Backward Spillovers and Equalized Access: The Effects of the Bologna Process across Italy’s Education System

This paper estimates the causal effects of the Bologna Process reform in Italy, analyzing the impact of the introduction of the “3+2” degree structure at different stages of the educational system. We implement multiple Difference-in-Differences designs on a nationally representative dataset composed of more than 140,000 high school graduates and 220,000 university graduates. We find that the reform increased graduations from the academic-oriented high school track by +5.50 p.p., revealing a “backward spillover effect” on high school completion. For university-related outcomes, we estimate a positive effect on enrollments (+5.53 p.p.) and in-time graduations (+7.22 p.p.) and a negative effect on dropout (–2.70 p.p.). The effects are always larger for students coming from the most disadvantaged parental backgrounds, particularly when combined with high ability. These findings suggest that the Bologna Process was effective in reducing barriers to educational investment, especially for talented students with financial constraints, thus challenging the narrative of the reform attracting low ability students. Finally, descriptive labor-market analyses show a convergence of performances for graduates with different parental backgrounds, but only among Bachelor’s graduates.