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Follow the Money: Methods for Identifying Consumption and Investment Responses to a Liquidity Shock

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  • Zinman, Jonathan
  • Karlan, Dean
  • Osman, Adam

Abstract

Identifying the impacts of liquidity shocks on spending decisions is difficult methodologically but important for theory, practice, and policy. Using seven different methods on microenterprise loan applicants, we find striking results. Borrowers report uses of loan proceeds strategically, and more generally their reporting depends on elicitation method. Borrowers also interpret loan use questions differently than the key counterfactual: spending that would not have occurred sans loan. We identify the counterfactual using random assignment of loan approvals and short-run follow-up elicitation of major household and business cash outflows, and estimate that about 100% of loan-financed spending is on business inventory.

Suggested Citation

  • Zinman, Jonathan & Karlan, Dean & Osman, Adam, 2013. "Follow the Money: Methods for Identifying Consumption and Investment Responses to a Liquidity Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 9773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9773
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    9. Fafchamps, Marcel & McKenzie, David & Quinn, Simon & Woodruff, Christopher, 2014. "Microenterprise growth and the flypaper effect: Evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 211-226.
    10. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Emla Fitzsimons & Heike Harmgart, 2011. "Group lending or individual lending? Evidence from a randomised field experiment in Mongolia," IFS Working Papers W11/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    13. Manuela Angelucci, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman, 2013. "Win Some Lose Some? Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco-Working Paper 330," Working Papers 330, Center for Global Development.
    14. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ksoll, Christopher & Lilleør, Helene Bie & Lønborg, Jonas Helth & Rasmussen, Ole Dahl, 2016. "Impact of Village Savings and Loan Associations: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-85.
    2. Deniz Aydin, 2015. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-010, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Julian Proctor & Paul Anand, 2017. "Is credit associated with a higher quality of life? A capability approach," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 17(4), pages 322-346, October.
    4. Groh, Matthew & McKenzie, David, 2016. "Macroinsurance for microenterprises: A randomized experiment in post-revolution Egypt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 13-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Fungibility; investment; Liquidity constraint; Liquidity shock; Loan use; Microcredit; Microenterprise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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