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A Simple Model of The Juggernaut Effect of Trade Liberalisation

  • Baldwin, Richard
  • Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric

This paper posits a formal political economy model where the principle of reciprocity in multilateral trade talks results in the gradual elimination of tariffs. Reciprocity trade talks turn each nation’s exporters into anti-protectionists at home; they lower foreign tariffs by convincing their own government to lower home tariffs. Due to the new array of political forces, each government finds it politically optimal to remove tariffs that it previously found politically optimal to impose. The one-off global tariff cut then reshapes the political economy landscape via entry and exit – reducing the size/influence of import-competing sectors and increasing that of exporters. In the next round of trade talks governments therefore find it politically optimal to cut tariffs again. The process may continue until tariffs are eliminated.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6607.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6607
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  1. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2007. "A Simple Model of The Juggernaut Effect of Trade Liberalisation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Giovanni Maggi & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2007. "A Political-Economy Theory of Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1374-1406, September.
  3. Christos Genakos & Tommaso Valletti, 2007. "Testing the "waterbed" effect in mobile telephony," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Marco Fugazza & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2014. "The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 1049-1078, November.
  5. Antoni Estevadeordal & Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2008. "Does regionalism affect trade liberalization towards non-members?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19584, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "U.S. labor market dynamics revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Christian Broda & Nuno Limao & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2032-65, December.
  8. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Baldwin, Richard, 1987. "Politically realistic objective functions and trade policy PROFs and tariffs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 287-290.
  10. Grossman, Gene & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks," CEPR Discussion Papers 806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2006. "Protection for Sale Made Easy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bagwell,K. & Staiger,R.W., 1998. "An economic theory of GATT," Working papers 15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  13. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2010. "Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Richard E. Baldwin & Rikard Forslid, 2010. "Trade Liberalization with Heterogeneous Firms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 161-176, 05.
  15. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2011. "What Do Trade Negotiators Negotiate About? Empirical Evidence from the World Trade Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1238-73, June.
  16. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2009. "Profit Shifting and Trade Agreements in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," NBER Working Papers 14803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Grossman, Gene & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "Protection for Sale," CEPR Discussion Papers 827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Richard E. Baldwin & Frederic Robert-Nicoud, 2002. "Entry and Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments Pick Losers," NBER Working Papers 8756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. S. Lael Brainard & Thierry Verdier, 1993. "The Political Economy of Declining Industries: Senescent Industry Collapse Revisited," NBER Working Papers 4606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Rodney D. Ludema & Anna Maria Mayda, 2013. "Do terms-of-trade effects matter for trade agreements? Theory and evidence from WTO Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1837-1893.
  21. Bombardini, Matilde, 2008. "Firm heterogeneity and lobby participation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 329-348, July.
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