A Mechanism-Design Approach to Speculative Trade
When agents hold non-common priors over an unverifiable state of nature which affects the outcome of their future actions, they have an incentive to bet on the outcome. We pose the following question: what are the limits on the agents' ability to realize gains from speculative bets when their prior belief is private information? We apply a 'mechanism design' approach to this question, in the context of a pair of models: a principal-agent model in which the two parties bet on the agent's future action, and a market model in which traders bet on the future price. We characterize interim-efficient bets in these environments, and their implementability as a function of fundamentals. In general, implementability of interim-efficient bets diminishes as the costs of manipulating the bet's outcome become more uneven across states or agents.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Cramton & Robert Gibbons & Paul Klemperer, 1987.
"Dissolving a Partnership Efficiently,"
Papers of Peter Cramton
87econ, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 09 Jun 1998.
- Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Jeff Ely, 2003.
"Foundations of Dominant Strategy Mechanisms,"
Theory workshop papers
658612000000000064, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey C. Ely & Kim-Sau Chung, 2004. "Foundations of Dominant Strategy Mechanisms," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 169, Econometric Society.
- Kim-Sau Chung & Jeffrey C. Ely, 2003. "Foundations of Dominant Strategy Mechanisms," Discussion Papers 1372, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Roger B. Myerson & Mark A. Satterthwaite, 1981.
"Efficient Mechanisms for Bilateral Trading,"
469S, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2006.
"Contracting with Diversely Naive Agents,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 689-714.
- Kfir Eliaz & Rani Spiegler, 2005.
784828000000000628, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979.
"Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge,"
377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November.
- Muhamet Yildiz, 2005.
"Wishful Thinking in Strategic Environments,"
NajEcon Working Paper Reviews
- Dubey, Pradeep, 1982.
"Price-Quantity Strategic Market Games,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 111-26, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.