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Social Security and Macroeconomic Risk in General Equilibrium

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  • Peter Broer

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction between macro-economic risk and paygo social security. For this, it uses an applied general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of risk-averse households. The sources of risk are productivity shocks and depreciation shocks. The risk profile of pensions differs from that of financial assets because pensions are linked partially to future wage rates and productivity. The model is used to discuss the effects of changes in the social security system on labor supply, private saving, and welfare in a closed economy. The author finds that switching from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution is generally welfare improving, if current generations are compensated, while a switch from a wage-indexed Defined Benefit system to a price-indexed system is generally welfare deteriorating. A reduction in the size of the pay-as-you-go system does not yield clear results: if current generations are compensated, some future generations lose, and others gain.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Broer, 2012. "Social Security and Macroeconomic Risk in General Equilibrium," CPB Discussion Paper 221, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matsen, Egil & Thogersen, Oystein, 2004. "Designing social security - a portfolio choice approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 883-904, August.
    2. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Should the Social Security Trust Fund Hold Equities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 666-697, July.
    3. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    4. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 00/18, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 640-647.
    7. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    8. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Breyer, Friedrich & Straub, Martin, 1993. "Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-91, January.
    10. Coen Teulings & Casper Vries, 2006. "Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 63-83, March.
    11. Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia & Sanchez-Martin, Alfonso R., 2006. "Can social security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1615-1646.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Johannes Uhde, 2013. "An Assessment of Alternatives for the Dutch First Pension Pillar, The Design of Pension Schemes," CPB Discussion Paper 259, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Johannes Uhde, 2015. "An Assessment of Alternatives for the Dutch First Pension Pillar System," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 281-302, September.

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