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The economic impacts of a construction project, using SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China

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  • Mark Horridge
  • Glyn Wittwer

Abstract

The paper outlines the theory and database preparation of SinoTERM, a "bottom-up" computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The methodology by which we construct the multi-regional model allows us to present the economy of China in an unprecedented amount of detail. SinoTERM covers all 31 provinces and municipalities. The database of the model extends the published national input-output table for 2002 to 137 sectors. The single crops sector in the published national input-output table is split into 11 and the single livestock sector into 3. The multi-regional CGE model provides a framework that we could modify to apply to many different policy applications. We can use SinoTERM to analyse the regional economic impacts of region-specific shocks. Such shocks could major construction projects or investments in health and education sectors, in an effort to accelerate economic growth in the lagging inland provinces. We use a 63 sector, 10 region aggregation of the SinoTERM master database to model the regional economic impacts of the proposed Chongqing-Lichuan rail link construction project.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2007. "The economic impacts of a construction project, using SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-164, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-164
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Viktor Pirmana & Armida Alisjahbana & Irlan Adiyatma Rum, 2015. "Boosting National Infrastructure Investment in West Java: An Analysis Using TERM CGE Model," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201507, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2015.
    2. Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2008. "Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation-AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany," Conference papers 331751, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2008. "Creating and managing an impossibly large CGE database that is up-to-date," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-175, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. J. Mostert & J. Heerden, 2015. "A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Expenditure on Infrastructure in the Limpopo Economy in South Africa," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(2), pages 227-236, May.
    5. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 379-475, Elsevier.
    6. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2011. "Regional Equality and National Development in China: Is There a Trade‐Off?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 628-669, December.
    7. Zhang, Yumei & Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin, 2012. "Growth and Distributive Effects of Public Infrastructure Investments in China," Conference papers 332234, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Ragchaasuren Galindev & Tsolmon Baatarzorig & Nyambaatar Batbayar & Delgermaa Begz & Unurjargal Davaa & Oyunzul Tserendorj, 2019. "The Economic and Environmental Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Mongolian Coal-Export Sector," Working Papers MPIA 2019-21, PEP-MPIA.
    9. Francois J. Stofberg & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "The Short Term Economic Impact of Levying E-Tolls on Industries," Working Papers 201527, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Shiwei Xu & Yumei Zhang & Xinshen Diao & Kevin Z. Chen, 2011. "Impacts of agricultural public spending on Chinese food economy," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 518-534, November.
    11. James Giesecke & Mark Horridge & Katarzyna Zawalinska, 2011. "A framework for assessing the economic consequences of the support for Less Favoured Areas within Pillar II of Common Agricultural Policy in a multi-regional CGE setting, with an application to Poland," ERSA conference papers ersa10p872, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modelling; regional modelling; construction projects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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