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Economías emergentes y COVID-19 Cierres en un mundo de empresas informales y pequenas

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro
  • Oscar Becerra
  • Marcela Eslava

Abstract

Las economías emergentes se caracterizan por una alta prevalencia de informalidad, empleo en pequenas empresas y trabajos no aptos para trabajar desde casa. Estas características influyen en cómo la crisis del COVID-19 afecta a la economía. Desarrollamos un marco analítico que, basado en identidades contables y datos reales, cuantifica las pérdidas potenciales de empleo e ingresos durante periodos de crisis y de recuperación en economías con distintas estructuras de organización económica. Nuestro análisis incorpora exposición diferencial del empleo a través de categorías de tamano de empresa y estatus de formalidad, as´ı como de sectores y ocupaciones. Tenemos en cuenta el choque de oferta directo generado por los cierres, el choque idiosincrásico de demanda que afecta sectores que dependen de interacciones de alto contacto con los consumidores, la trasmisión de estos dos choques a través de encadenamientos productivos, y el efecto en la demanda agregada que se deriva de estos choques. Aplicando nuestro análisis a los datos de Colombia, que exhibe una distribución del empleo similar a la de otras economías emergentes, en particular de América Latina, encontramos que más de 50 % de los empleos están en riesgo en las etapas iniciales de la crisis. Debido a que los trabajos informales y aquellos que no son aptos para el teletrabajo están en mayor riesgo, este numero ´ se reduce a 33 % si se impone la distribución del empleo de Estados Unidos a los datos colombianos. A medida que la crisis se profundiza aumenta el riesgo de desempleo. Sin embargo, los empleos informales repuntan rápidamente durante las etapas de recuperación y los empleos en riesgo se reducen a 20 % de los empleos iniciales, todos concentrados en el sector formal. Nuestros hallazgos destacan la importancia de acciones para evitar la disolución de vínculos formales, dada su escasez y la dificultad de la reconstrucción de ´estos, al tiempo que se protege a los más vulnerables y a los informales a través de transferencias monetarias.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "Econom√≠as emergentes y COVID-19 Cierres en un mundo de empresas informales y pequenas," Documentos CEDE 18205, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:018205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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