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Marginal Propensity to Consume to Two-Time Income Shocks

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  • Kozo UEDA

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Japanese government provided special cash payments (SCPs) multiple times. This study aims to estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) to these income shocks using detailed bank transaction data. Our findings indicate that the MPC is stable at around 0.2 for both the first wave of SCPs launched in mid-2020 and the second wave of SCPs provided from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. The MPC varies depending on an individual's wealth and liquidity constraints. Specifically, the MPC tends to increase as individuals become less wealthy and more liquidity constrained. JEL Classification Number: D14, E41

Suggested Citation

  • Kozo UEDA, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume to Two-Time Income Shocks," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:23-008e
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    2. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2020. "Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 275-297, November.
    3. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.
    4. Gelman, Michael, 2021. "What drives heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume? Temporary shocks vs persistent characteristics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 521-542.
    5. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    6. Kozo UEDA, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Personal Characteristics: Evidence from Bank Transaction Data and Survey," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-007E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    7. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    8. Jonathan A. Parker & Jake Schild & Laura Erhard & David S. Johnson, 2022. "Economic Impact Payments and Household Spending during the Pandemic," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 81-156.
    9. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal propensity to consume; special cash payment program; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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