Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Lessons for the Central and Eastern European Countries
This paper estimates the medium-term determinants of the bilateral exchange rate variability and exchange rate pressures for 20 developed countries in the 1990s. The results suggest that the optimum currency area criteria explain the dynamics of bilateral exchange rate variability and pressures to a large extent. Next, we predict exchange rate volatility and pressures for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). We find that the CEECs encounter exchange rate pressures at approximately the same level as the euro area countries did before they adopted the euro.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1|
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003.
"Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
- Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May.
- Devereux, M.B. & Lane, P.R., 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," CEG Working Papers 20025, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," Trinity Economics Papers 200211, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Devereux, Michael B & Lane, Philip R., 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 3518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June.
- von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2001. "Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices," MPRA Paper 13196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe; A Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 17-32.
- Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
- Vaubel, Roland, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European Community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Kiel Working Papers 39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
- John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2002. "A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 163-189, January.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 1999. "A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables," Working papers 99-11, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
- Dmitri Boreiko, 2003. "EMU and accession countries: Fuzzy cluster analysis of membership," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 309-325.
- Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
- Angel Serrat, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2005/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.