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Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Lessons for the Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

This paper estimates the medium-term determinants of the bilateral exchange rate variability and exchange rate pressures for 20 developed countries in the 1990s. The results suggest that the optimum currency area criteria explain the dynamics of bilateral exchange rate variability and pressures to a large extent. Next, we predict exchange rate volatility and pressures for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). We find that the CEECs encounter exchange rate pressures at approximately the same level as the euro area countries did before they adopted the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Lessons for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2005/08, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2005/08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicas Yabu & Deogratius Kimolo, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Implications on Macroeconomic Variables in East African Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 145-171, May.
    2. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.
    3. Vít Bubák & Filip Žikeš, 2009. "Distribution and Dynamics of Central-European Exchange Rates: Evidence from Intraday Data," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 334-359, Oktober.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Adoption; Exchange Rates; GMM; Optimum Currency Area.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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