IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/cirwor/2022s-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Combien de personnes ont développé des symptômes ou contracté la Covid-19 au Québec ? Une étude exploratoire

Author

Listed:
  • David Boisclair
  • Roxane Borgès Da Silva
  • Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin
  • Pierre-Carl Michaud
  • Ingrid Peignier

Abstract

This update integrates the data from the second week of collection, which took place from January 20 to 25, 2022, with a sample of 3001 respondents representative of the Quebec population and compares them to the first week of collection. → Update 2nd week of collection (January 20-25, 2022) We estimate the incidence of COVID-19, which is the number of adult persons who tested positive for COVID-19, either rapid or PCR, or self-diagnosed as having COVID-19 on the basis of symptoms, over a 7-day period ending January 13-18, 2022. We present a direct sampling estimate on the adult population as well as an indirect sampling estimate based on the network scale-up method. Our results suggest that during this period 261,863 people tested positive, which is similar to the network scale-up estimates (ranging from 231,967 to 251,706 depending on the method). On a daily basis, these figures indicate that there were an average of 33,000 to 38,000 positive tests per day in Quebec during the period. In addition, 146,567 people report a positive self-diagnosis, which when added to those with a positive test result gives an estimate of 407,430 probable cases of COVID-19 in the adult population (58,144 on average per day). In comparison, INSPQ data report 48,815 positive cases based on PCR tests in Quebec during the same seven-day period (6,973 on average per day). Regardless of the method and estimator used (excluding self-diagnosis), we obtain an incidence that is about five times higher than the official figure. The survey will be repeated over 4 consecutive weeks in order to follow the evolution. To quote this document Boisclair, D., Borgès Da Silva, R., Boucher, V., De Marcellis-Warin, N., Michaud, P-C et Peignier, I. (2022). Combien de personnes ont développé des symptômes ou contracté la Covid-19 au Québec? Une étude exploratoire (2022s-03). https://doi.org/10.54932/KWYT2364 → Mise à jour 2e semaine de collecte (20 au 25 janvier 2022) Cette mise à jour intègre les données de la 2e semaine de collecte ayant eu lieu du 20 au 25 janvier 2022 auprès d’un échantillon de 3001 répondants représentatif de la population du Québec et les compare à la première semaine de collecte. Nous estimons l'incidence de la COVID-19, soit le nombre de personnes adultes ayant reçu un résultat positif à un test, rapide ou PCR, ou s'étant auto-diagnostiquées comme ayant eu la COVID-19 sur la base des symptômes, sur une période de sept jours se terminant entre le 13 et le 18 janvier 2022. Nous présentons une estimation par échantillonnage direct sur la population adulte ainsi qu'une estimation par échantillonnage indirect basée sur la méthode de l'amplificateur par réseau (network scale up method). Nos résultats suggèrent que durant cette période 261 863 personnes ont reçu un résultat positif à un test, ce qui est semblable aux estimations par la méthode de l'amplificateur par réseau (variant de 231 967 à 251 706 selon la méthode). Sur une base journalière, ces chiffres indiquent qu'il y avait en moyenne 33 000 à 38 000 tests positifs par jour au Québec durant la période. De plus, 146 567 personnes rapportent un auto-diagnostic positif, ce qui une fois ajouté aux personnes ayant reçu un résultat de test positif donne une estimation de 407 430 cas probables de COVID-19 au sein de la population adulte (58 144 en moyenne par jour). Comparativement, les données de l'INSPQ rapportent 48 815 cas positifs sur la base de tests PCR au Québec durant cette même période de sept jours (6 973 en moyenne par jour). Peu importe la méthode et l'estimateur utilisé (en excluant les auto-diagnostics), nous obtenons une incidence qui est environ cinq fois plus élevée que le chiffre officiel. L'enquête sera répétée sur 4 semaines consécutives dans un objectif de suivre l'évolution. Pour citer ce document Boisclair, D., Borgès Da Silva, R., Boucher, V., De Marcellis-Warin, N., Michaud, P-C et Peignier, I. (2022). Combien de personnes ont développé des symptômes ou contracté la Covid-19 au Québec? Une étude exploratoire (2022s-03). https://doi.org/10.54932/KWYT2364

Suggested Citation

  • David Boisclair & Roxane Borgès Da Silva & Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Ingrid Peignier, 2022. "Combien de personnes ont développé des symptômes ou contracté la Covid-19 au Québec ? Une étude exploratoire," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-05, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2022s-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Pelli, Martino & Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2014. "Does the quality of electricity matter? Evidence from rural India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 228-247.
    2. Gunther Bensch & Jochen Kluve & Jörg Peters, 2011. "Impacts of rural electrification in Rwanda," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 567-588, December.
    3. Rud, Juan Pablo, 2012. "Electricity provision and industrial development: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 352-367.
    4. Taryn Dinkelman, 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3078-3108, December.
    5. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1523-1565.
    6. Gupta, Ridhima & Pelli, Martino, 2021. "Electrification and cooking fuel choice in rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Barron, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2017. "Household electrification and indoor air pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 81-92.
    8. Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2020. "Short- and long-run impacts of rural electrification: Evidence from the historical rollout of the U.S. power grid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Molly Lipscomb & A. Mushfiq Mobarak & Tania Barham, 2013. "Development Effects of Electrification: Evidence from the Topographic Placement of Hydropower Plants in Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 200-231, April.
    10. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Emerick, Kyle & Ravago, Majah-Leah, 2016. "Lighting up the last mile: The bene ts and costs of extending electricity to the rural poor," RFF Working Paper Series dp-16-22-rev, Resources for the Future.
    11. Dominique van de Walle & Martin Ravallion & Vibhuti Mendiratta & Gayatri Koolwal, 2017. "Long-term Gains from Electrification in Rural India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(2), pages 385-411.
    12. Hunt Allcott & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen D. O'Connell, 2016. "How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Industry? Evidence from India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 587-624, March.
    13. Grogan, Louise & Sadanand, Asha, 2013. "Rural Electrification and Employment in Poor Countries: Evidence from Nicaragua," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 252-265.
    14. Shahidur R. Khandker & Douglas F. Barnes & Hussain A. Samad, 2013. "Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification: A Panel Data Analysis from Vietnam," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 659-692.
    15. Thomas, Daniel Robert & Harish, S.P. & Kennedy, Ryan & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2020. "The effects of rural electrification in India: An instrumental variable approach at the household level," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Does Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 122-144, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Ridhima & Pelli, Martino, 2021. "Electrification and cooking fuel choice in rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Simone Tagliapietra & Giovanni Occhiali & Enrico Nano & Robert Kalcik, 2020. "The impact of electrification on labour market outcomes in Nigeria," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 737-779, October.
    3. Ngawang Dendup, 2021. "Returns to Grid Electricity on Firewood Consumption and Mechanism," Working Papers 2109, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises," Papers 2301.07671, arXiv.org.
    5. Enrico Nano, 2022. "Electrifying Nigeria: the Impact of Rural Access to Electricity on Kids' Schooling," IHEID Working Papers 03-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Dendup, Ngawang, 2022. "Returns to grid electricity on firewood and kerosene: Mechanism," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Deutschmann, Joshua W. & Postepska, Agnieszka & Sarr, Leopold, 2021. "Measuring willingness to pay for reliable electricity: Evidence from Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Does Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 122-144, Winter.
    9. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Ridhima Gupta & Martino Pelli, 2022. "The economics of rural energy use in developing countries," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-12, CIRANO.
    10. Obsa Urgessa Ayana & Jima Degaga, 2022. "Effects of rural electrification on household welfare: a meta-regression analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(2), pages 209-261, June.
    11. Bensch, Gunther & Gotz, Gunnar & Peters, Jörg, 2020. "Effects of rural electrification on employment: A comment on Dinkelman (2011)," Ruhr Economic Papers 840, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Santosh Kumar & Ganesh Rauniyar, 2018. "The impact of rural electrification on income and education: Evidence from Bhutan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 1146-1165, August.
    13. Wagner, Natascha & Rieger, Matthias & Bedi, Arjun S. & Vermeulen, Jurgen & Demena, Binyam Afewerk, 2021. "The impact of off-grid solar home systems in Kenya on energy consumption and expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Fujii, Tomoki & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2020. "Fertility and rural electrification in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Jacopo Bonan & Stefano Pareglio & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "Access to Modern Energy: a Review of Impact Evaluations," Working Papers 2014.96, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Meles, Tensay Hadush, 2020. "Impact of power outages on households in developing countries: Evidence from Ethiopia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. World Bank Group, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 17, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 29667, The World Bank Group.
    18. Bayer, Patrick & Kennedy, Ryan & Yang, Joonseok & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2020. "The need for impact evaluation in electricity access research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Robin Burgess & Michael Greenstone & Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "Demand for Electricity on the Global Electrification Frontier," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Michael Grimm & Anicet Munyehirwe & Jörg Peters & Maximiliane Sievert, 2017. "A First Step up the Energy Ladder? Low Cost Solar Kits and Household’s Welfare in Rural Rwanda," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(3), pages 631-649.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Quebec; Network Scale Up Method (NSUM); Incidence; COVID-19; Québec; Amplificateur par réseau; Incidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.